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Cascadia Subduction Zone

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by RicInOR, Jul 14, 2015.

  1. RicInOR

    RicInOR Washington County Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    I saw the news today, oh boy!


    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

    Big ~ 8.0 - 8.6 very big ~ 8.6+
    "the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three.
    The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten. "


    “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

    In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. ".


    "OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years."
     
  2. Oathkeeper1775

    Oathkeeper1775 Coast Range Well-Known Member

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    If a report needs to be released to make the financial-backers happy, let it fly.

    Western Oregon is already in the seizmic zone D3; along with some of interior Alaska. Upgrading to a level 4 would cost the taxpayer/consumer $billions; timely-upgrades could hardly occur for existing structures unless a remodel encompasses more than 25% of the value.

    Insurance companies offering land-shift policies will want lots of anchors, soil surveys, and high psi concrete on newly-designed structures, and/or verification on the existing.

    Much of the infrastructure in the Columbia basin sits on gravel bars that were formed from the Missoula floods; what about those areas? Gravel in a river bed rolls; less stable than the Coast Range.

    The Dalles is also in D3, it sits on an ancient slide.

    New structure costs would soar; I don't see the highway or building codes changing based on the information in this report, which lacks a sufficient amount of technical data; example, define "toast".

    The Uncertainty Avoidance Industry loves these reports...
     
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  3. mjbskwim

    mjbskwim Salmon,Idaho Well-Known Member

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    Even a year to restore water and sewer is laughable.
    SOOO many old (circa 1890's) utilities in Seattle. Even if they have been replacing water lines in Seattle,there is miles of what we called sand cast iron.It could be 1" thick on 1 side and a half inch on the other. Breaks fairly easy (first hand knowledge) and would kind of completely fall apart with a huge quake.
    Same deal as trying to get out of the city,it would take forever to clear the streets to fix utilities
    Good luck
     
  4. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

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    I put these guys who predict earth quakes about even with weathermen, earthquakes are going to happen and so is weather but nobody has nailed an exact time down. Odds are the insurance companies will use the earthquake info to raise your rates.....
     
  5. Stomper

    Stomper Oceania Rising White Is The New Brown Silver Supporter

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    Tool (the rock band) said it best. "Learn to swim". ;)
     
  6. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    I would love to post the lyrics, However that would be a whole lot of bubblegums :)
     
  7. Stomper

    Stomper Oceania Rising White Is The New Brown Silver Supporter

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    LOL.... t'would indeed.
     
  8. coop44

    coop44 Tacoma ,WA Well-Known Member

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    Been through every quake down south for the last 4 decades, bah. Now a volcano! That's something worth hanging around for.

    The myth of "falling off" into the ocean, is just that, a myth. Maybe a tsunami, but it would start here and radiate out, so no worries

    The odds of something happening anywhere in the next fifty years are probably about the same.
    For instance:
    Oprah becoming queen of the world
    Elvis returning from his home planet
    Me getting married again
    The angels winning another world series




    It took pierce county a year to fix 500 feet of road by me, good luck with those estimates.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2015
  9. OLDNEWBIE

    OLDNEWBIE State of Flux Well-Known Member

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    My elderly Mom in FL is all freaked out over this FOX news clip she saw about it. Wants us to grab the kids and run asap! In my opinion these Scientists might have some knowledge of what has happened but none of them can predict the future accurately on climate, earthquakes, landslides or alien attacks!
    Saying that, I don't doubt the possibility. But predicting the timing of major or minor geological events is a bit egotistical.
    I wonder if there is a political agenda here??? Who is this guy anyway?

     
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  10. IronMonster

    IronMonster Washington Opinionated Member Diamond Supporter

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    I think you are a little mistaken about your odds. The odds of this happening are 100%. The odds of it happening in your lifetime? debatable.

    However I would say they are considerably better than Elvis showing up in a space ship.
     
  11. mrblond

    mrblond Salem OR Well-Known Member

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    Imagine the Tsunami that would cause.. America giving anyone living on any Pacific coast the finger.
     
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  12. Norm0931

    Norm0931 Hillsboro, OR Sgt. Sheep Silver Vendor 2016 Volunteer

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    If you look at the actual historical timeline of the Cascadia quakes it's not nearly as imminent as the are making it sound. There is a strong probability we'll have a half release ~8.0 quake in southern oregon/northern california in the next 100 years. The 243 years they claim as average is ALL the quakes, not just major ones. The major quakes average about every 500 years.
     
  13. ddwood13

    ddwood13 WA New Member

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    Is there any specific preparations you are doing or any different kind of preparations you are doing out of the normal?
     
  14. Stomper

    Stomper Oceania Rising White Is The New Brown Silver Supporter

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    Yes, I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express recently. o_O
     
  15. CoastRange57

    CoastRange57 Western Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    Open up Earth Google, pull off some of the layers, or go to USGS site and look at the topography and geography of the area. You will quickly understand what will happen to the Portland metro area, and to the east and west you can expect major infrastructure damage. Portland sits on nothing but a huge oout flow area from the Missoula Floods. While it will not be as severe, compromise of the Columbia River dams could be a problem. :eek:Water, sewer, natural gas will be disrupted.

    Look at your daily commutes or travels, see how many bridges you have to cross and underpasses you need to traverse and that will tell you what you are up against. A good GHB and plenty of ammo and a way to cross water ways will be key.
     
  16. Sgt Nambu

    Sgt Nambu Oregon Bronze Supporter Bronze Supporter

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    Yes dd, I keep food, water, a full array of camping gear, a nine man tent, fuel, a generator and some weaponry in my stand alone garage. The garage is seriously secure!
     
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  17. coop44

    coop44 Tacoma ,WA Well-Known Member

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    still rooting for the volcano to erupt, and elvis to come back of course.
     
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  18. Certaindeaf

    Certaindeaf SE Portland Well-Known Member

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    I got subducted by aliens once. That's why I carry a gun. lol
     
  19. mrblond

    mrblond Salem OR Well-Known Member

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    paul-movie_77741-1152x864.jpg
     
  20. 40calruler

    40calruler Lake Oswego Well-Known Member

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    Wow....That explains so so so much sir....
     
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