Poll: Cascadia Rising Type Event & Preparations?

[CountryGent]

Considering this is likely the most destructive natural disaster that could impact our region, I thought starting a thread in which we can discuss the eventuality, compare notes, ponder scenarios, and consider what can be done to be more prepared. As some may not be completely familiar with the exercise name I cited in the title or what it entailed, I'll provide a brief summary below. Also, there is a footnotes section in a standard format for those that wish to read more.

What is the Risk?
The Cascadia Subduction Zone, or Cascadia Fault, is a convergent plate boundary offshore from the Pacific Northwest (PNW). It stretches from Vancouver Island in British Columbia to Northern California. The potential for a megathrust earthquake, which can exceed a magnitude of 9.0, exists. There is evidence such an event occurred in a period around 1700 and it had an estimated magnitude of 8.7—9.2. The available evidence indicates that a magnitude 8.0—9.0 earthquake occurs along the fault once every 200 to 500 years. Some in the scientific community believe we are overdue for such an event.

The devastation wrought by such an event would be unprecedented in modern history. It would be a combination of an earthquake, a tsunami, flooding, and potentially civil unrest. The death toll would be in the thousands and damage would be in the billions. Supplies, transportation, infrastructure, and other critical services would be impacted. Major General Bret Daugherty, commander of the Washington National Guard, stated that it is, quote, "expected to be the worst natural disaster ever in the United States". Professor John Vidale, a seismologist with the University of Washington has stated "[it] could be the worst disaster the country has ever faced".

What Was Cascadia Rising?
<broken link removed> was a large scale training exercise involving dozens of government agencies from the local, state, federal, and tribal government, nonprofit organizations, private organizations, both civilian and military organizations, and many volunteers.

Considerations

• Are your preparing for this event? If so, how?
• Did you participate in the exercise? If so, in what capacity? Any lessons learned you'd like to share?
• If you live in a coastal community, how has this impacted your preparations?
• If, alternatively, you live farther inland, how has it impacted your preparations?
• Do you plan on bugging in or out if this "goes down"?
• How do you envision this scenario may play out?
• Any other thoughts and considerations?

Footnotes

1. Cascadia Rising 2016. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from <broken link removed>
   
2. Cascadia Subduction Zone. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from Cascadia Subduction Zone | Pacific Northwest Seismic Network
   
3. News and Research Communications. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from Subduction zone earthquakes off Oregon, Washington more frequent than previous estimates | News and Research Communications | Oregon State University
   
4. Cascadia Rising 2016. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from <broken link removed>
   
5. C. (2016, June 07). "Doomsday" drill starts in Pacific Northwest. Retrieved January 21, 2017, from "Doomsday" drill starts in Pacific Northwest - CBS News
   
6. Exercise Scenario Document: Cascadia Rising. (n.d.). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from https://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/docs...16/Cascadia_Rising_2016_Exercise_Scenario.pdf
   
7. Exercise Scenario Document: Cascadia Rising. (2016, September 06). Retrieved January 21, 2017, from https://www.fema.gov/media-library-...753f3f9c6037dd22922cde32e3dd/CR16_AAR_508.pdf
   
8. Schulz, K. (2016, April 28). The Really Big One. Retrieved January 21, 2017, from The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest

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[Joe13]

Hard to prep when your broke.

Someday though

 

[Libertas7]

I'll come back to this later, but where's the 'No, but I want to' option in the poll?

 

[Koda]

last summer I built a water storage rack holds 100 gallons. Ive never been much of a prepper but I do think the Cascadia quake is a valid concern.

this is a fun website, put in your zip code and it estimates how long you will be without roads, hospitals, police, water/sewer utilities etc. its an eye opener...
Aftershock

its funny how it recommends to have 2 weeks of preps, but indicates I will be without water, police, healthcare and roads for over a year.

 

[nammac]

So we have between 0 days and 183 years before this could happen...

I've got my supplies for the basic survival, enough to get us through, we won't be thirsty, hungry or cold. We all
have bug out bags and the wife and I have SHTF bags that contain primary and secondary arms and replacement ammo... This year the wife's vehicle gets run flats just because ya can't drive on flat tyres...

That should just about do it... Can't be more prepared than I am without it becoming an obsession...

I've got other more tangible things to be obsessed about.

 

[Brutus57]

Just give me 6-7 months till I buy a house, is all I am sayin....

Here in Jefferson 51st we have a fair amount of vittles naturally it just depends how crazy the unprepared get. About 2-3 miles from a major river so we won't die of thirst and plenty of high ground to get away from any flooding. Oak by the million board feet, you just got to cut, buck and split.

Brutus Out

 

[Koda]

• Do you plan on bugging in or out if this "goes down"?

• How do you envision this scenario may play out?

if this happens as big as they say it will I dont see how anyone will be able to bug out. Where are you going to go on foot?

My hope is that this scenario will play out with the community working together to help each other as aid arrives, but I'm skeptical as I doubt even 10% of the community at large are preppers or somewhat prepared. I'm guilty... but at least aware and started working on things like water. Dont tell anyone what your prepping for or what you have.

 

[nammac]

Always be vague... Period...

 

[HB of CJ]

Depending upon who you listen to there is anywhere from a one in 10 to a 1 in 50 chance between 30 and 50 years of this happening. Pretty good odds. Otherwise stated an excellent chance nothing will happen within my remaining lifetime.

Wildfires? Oh yeah, we take that one seriously. Three close calls in 12 years. But the "big one"? Probably not going to happen. Not funny that the end results of either for us would be about the same. A total disruption of our lives.

 

[Brutus57]

Always be vague... Period...

I am not sure I get your point.

Brutus Out

 

[maxisback]

Got canned goods, water, and first aid kits. Spring nearby for more water and get home kits in everyone's cars. Can't do much more than that. Monitor Suspicious0bsetvers daily quake and space weather repirt on YouTube. Getting his disaster prediction app soon.

 

[HuckleberryFun]

Always be vague... Period...

You got that pretty well covered, buddy.
Da dum dum!

 

[HuckleberryFun]

Other than retrofitting your house to improve earthquake resistance just about anything you do to prepare for any disaster will help you in a Cascadia event. One good thing about prepping is the carryover for different scenarios. Whether it's earthquake, social-economic collapse, or zombies you are always going to need water, food, supplies, guns/ammo, and a well thought out Plan B. Just pick one, prepare well for it, and you're mostly covered for most anything else. (OK, you'll need gas masks and MOPP gear for some things but going down those endless 'what ifs' is a rabbit hole...)

Earthquakes are definitely on my list of worries, but the Big One may or may not happen in my lifetime. If it does keep in mind that pure bad luck may mean that despite all your preps you'll still be dead because you just happened to pick that moment to go up on a ladder on your roof or be transiting underneath an ill-maintained bridge or overpass right when it hits.
Prepare yes, but don't overthink it.

 

[tac]

Although we live for most of the year in far-off yUK, we DO spend a month or so in Oregon every year, and having read all this prep stuff, and been scared fartless by it, I've arranged to have a pal who is handy with prepping deer to take my appendix out in the morning.

I figure that driving along Highway 101 at Rockaway Beach, trying to beat off the crazies, avoid the opening chasms in the pavement, put out my burning tyres AND dodge the 300 foot-high tidal wave is going to give me enough to worry about without having to contend with a grumbling appendix, too.

tac

 

[HuckleberryFun]

Although we live for most of the year in far-off yUK, we DO spend a month or so in Oregon every year, and having read all this prep stuff, and been scared fartless by it, I've arranged to have a pal who is handy with prepping deer to take my appendix out in the morning.

I figure that driving along Highway 101 at Rockaway Beach, trying to beat off the crazies, put out my burning tyres AND avoid the 300 foot-high tidal wave is going to give me enough to worry about without having to contend with a grumbling appendix, too.

tac

What? Sarcasm?

 

[CountryGent]

Depending upon who you listen to there is anywhere from a one in 10 to a 1 in 50 chance between 30 and 50 years of this happening. Pretty good odds.

I've seen similar stats quoted. On the higher end, a New Yorker article cites a 1 in 3 chance of it happening in the next fifty years. The seismologist mentioned in the OP phrased it "1 in 300 chance" every year in <broken link removed> . So not likely, but most certainly not impossible.

I sort of put this scenario as a more likely, natural-disaster version of an nuclear attack: Probably not going to happen, but it sets the bar very high indeed, and puts the focus on longer term self-sufficiency. Keeping household or community working on being as prepared and resilient is a positive.

last summer I built a water storage rack holds 100 gallons.

Very nice. I like the "more the merrier" approach to water sources.

 

[tac]

What? Sarcasm?

Who, moi? Sarcastic?

Fie, Sir.

tac

 

[Koda]

Very nice. I like the "more the merrier" approach to water sources.

thing about my 100 gallons is it maybe will last me only 30 days when Ive read I could be out water and sewage for up to a year. thats going off the 1 gallon per day per person, family of 4. We would ration the clean water of course. There is a city stream about 3 miles from here, but I cringe severely at the thought of tapping into that to drink even with the best filter or treatment. bleh. Plus, Id have to leave the house to portage water... that is where hopefully I could work together with my neighbors, they will need water too and could trade portage duty for security duty.

 

[Camelfilter]

I think being completely unprepared is a brilliant plan for all eventualities.

 

[TeacherSmurf]

Hard to prep when your broke.

Someday though

We actually started with "can money" and using loose change. It takes a lot less than you think to start. The trick is to start by prepping for a day or two, not months or years. We started with car bags with one days supplies. Then did our bug-out bags with two days worth. Then added to our car supplies, so that we now have about four days if the car is full, a week if less people.

The key is to start with small goals, and add to it.