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Big picture of disaster scenarios in preparing your supplies list

Discussion in 'Preparedness & Survival' started by CarlMc, Jan 17, 2011.

  1. CarlMc

    CarlMc Safely north of Seattle Active Member

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    Recently I started making a list of what supplies I wanted where, and came to a grinding halt when I realized I hadn't defined the requirements. Defining the requirements is like "I must to be able to cross a river 3' deep in a vehicle while carrying six passengers and 400 pounds and/or 75 cubic feet of cargo," rather than saying "I want big a** tires on a jacked up crew cab truck so I can go anywhere." With that in mind, I started to consider all the possible disaster scenarios that could possibly befall my family, and what the effects were. I started putting together a spreadsheet listing all the possible things that could happen to my little neck of the woods, their likelihood, what the results, severity, and the duration of those results could be, as well as the social impact and severity of those results. In many disasters, lots of folks give all they can for the benefit of their neighbors in need, and in some, depending on the level of dependancy in the populace, may turn to less pleasant activities. For example, a flood could take out local power, thus damaging out the local internet, thus taking out all electronic financial transactions (which actually happened on the east coast,) leading to a panic by most folks not keeping enough actual cash on hand to get by.

    Most local and state government put together these very scenarios, but its obviously geared to their own response, and from what I've seen as a CERT member, highly optimistic. They also don't make them easy to find on the web, and many aren't going to publish the entire thing simply because it involves some ugly possibilities. Who wants to read that the city plans to leave dead bodies to rot in your neighborhood until they get around to yours?

    The goal of the spreadsheet was to identify all the possible effects of a disaster and put together a plan to deal with the individual or multiple effects. Many of you are aware of companies and facilities that have a little book with tabs on them that, in the event of something bad, the user simply flips to the relavant tab and follows the instructions. That's sort of where I'm going with it, and making the necessary preparations based on a playbook, with the necessary considerations for other impacting conditions also in it.

    So, going through the web I wasn't able to find as much as I'd hoped to build my spreadsheet with, and was wondering if anyone else has approached this from the same perspective.
     
  2. Just Jim

    Just Jim Well-Known Member

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    My opinion. 3 min without air, 3 days without water, 3 weeks without food will kill most people. Along the way anything from heat stroke in the summer to hypothermia in the winter will be amoung the first things that take a toll. Violence may raise it's head but there are alot of guns out there in the hands of others that will be more than willing to kill offenders. Disease will be the final killer.

    With this in mind I suggest you make up your own spreadsheet that follows your plan be it staying in place or moveing to a retreat or just fleeing danger. I say make your own because there are alot of differences in who we are and circumstanses we live with. If you want good info I suggest http://www.survivalblog.com/ as Rawles is the best.

    jj
     
  3. Mike1C

    Mike1C Western Washington New Member

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    The majority of likely to happen disasters would last less than 30 days, and most people can cope easily with them. Those disasters would include earthquakes, fires, floods, and thunderstorms or snowstorms that shut off your power. These local disasters are quite trivial when it comes to survival prepping. Food will be readily available, shelters are provided by the state, and law enforcement and emergency services wont stop. The ability to survive is not in question.

    I believe that the real danger comes from unlikely scenarios. Some events are likely to occur every 100 to 200 years, and because they occur less often, people are caught unprepared. These events will devastate entire populations and cause mass casualties and suffering, they include:

    Plagues. Like the 1918 Spanish flu that killed 50 Million, or small pox that killed 300 million in 20th century alone. (10-20% death rate is acceptable and wont shut down society) If you plan for this you need supplies to be able to isolate yourself from others. You may need 6 months worth of food, and enough money to pay the bills without going to work for 6 months until a vaccination can be made and distributed.

    World Wars. The last being in 1945. These lead to shortages of all sorts of things, including food and fuel.

    EMP. These may be more common than people think. The last EMP hit the USA in 1859 caused by a solar flare before we had electronics. It didn't do much damage back then, but if it hit us now we could be facing huge distribution problems (which means no food for a long time) that could cause many riots and starvation.

    Famine. If we had a large volcano or meteor impact like in 1815 we could have a winter that would last for a year or two, preventing crops from growing.
    Most famines are regional, but if enough regions are effected at the same time we would have mass starvation on a global level.

    These things are not likely to happen next year or even in the next 10 years, but in 100 years it is very likely that we will see all of them come to pass. We have been lucky for the past half century, and people tend to forget that history repeats itself.

    The first thing to consider preparing for is Food, and a way to make clean drinking water. After that, just start collecting everything you will need to make it without any outside help for a selected period of time. I would suggest a minimum of 1 year. I keep a list in windows wordpad of everything that I have and need to get to sustain myself for 18 months. I list things in categories, Food&Water, Cooking, Hygiene, Defense, medical, Gardening, and Misc. I include all the supplies I would need for every possible scenario on my list.
     
  4. Bazooka Joe

    Bazooka Joe Lower Yakima Valley Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure if this is the type of info you were looking for, but (in Washington at least) if you google "all hazards mitigation plan" and your county or city, you can find some of this info.

    The Seattle All Hazards Mitigation Plan has some probability and damage info around page 22-23 of this pdf, for example.
     
  5. CarlMc

    CarlMc Safely north of Seattle Active Member

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    Excellent! That's a great point and I got some good stuff there. Thanks!
     
  6. MountainBear

    MountainBear Sweet Home, OR Well-Known Member

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  7. mjbskwim

    mjbskwim Salmon,Idaho Well-Known Member

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    They better have a good plan down there since my alcohol comes from there.
    Y'all just need to save the distillery and the brewery and no one gets hurt
     
  8. MountainBear

    MountainBear Sweet Home, OR Well-Known Member

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    I'll make sure to protect Deschutes Brewery. Anything else is not my concern...
     
  9. gearhead

    gearhead NC Active Member

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    Viva Obsidian Stout!
     
  10. toddt36

    toddt36 tacoma Member

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    HAHA right???