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I understand the importance of a pro-2A governor, but the governor doesn't make law. Oregon's problem is in legislature. As long as the dems have a supermajority there (both houses) they can override any veto by the governor.

That said, just say "Betsy is too far right for Oregon," and she has my vote. ;)
 
We want a Governor who will stand up to the leftist A.G. and the courts, will "Fire" the corrupt mayor's and city Clowncils and generally much up the leftists plans at every step. That Governer can also act proactively toward others, and can stop or even reverse pending crap, and can also go after state agencies that need reigned in, like ODFW and Oregon Health Authority!

This is where Betsy can really do the most good for OryGun!
 
To tell the truth, I haven't really paid that much attention to this race until now. However, this thread got me to do a little investigating. Practically speaking, IMO the goal should be to support the candidate that has the best chance of beating Kotek. Drazen seems to be surging in the polls, while Johnson's support seems to be lagging. At this point, it looks like a vote for Johnson could put Kotek over the top. I'm not saying folks should abandon their support of Johnson at this point, but it might behoove us to keep an eye on the polls and vote accordingly when the time comes.


 
To tell the truth, I haven't really paid that much attention to this race until now. However, this thread got me to do a little investigating. Practically speaking, IMO the goal should be to support the candidate that has the best chance of beating Kotek. Drazen seems to be surging in the polls, while Johnson's support seems to be lagging. At this point, it looks like a vote for Johnson could put Kotek over the top. I'm not saying folks should abandon their support of Johnson at this point, but it might behoove us to keep an eye on the polls and vote accordingly when the time comes.


Heres the thing. I'm on Betsy's email list; they claim to have gotten more than 48,000 signatures from the petitions to put her on the ballot for November, "more than double the number needed to be put on the ballot". We'll see if she indeed can pull a lot of votes away from Kotek.
 
To tell the truth, I haven't really paid that much attention to this race until now. However, this thread got me to do a little investigating. Practically speaking, IMO the goal should be to support the candidate that has the best chance of beating Kotek. Drazen seems to be surging in the polls, while Johnson's support seems to be lagging. At this point, it looks like a vote for Johnson could put Kotek over the top. I'm not saying folks should abandon their support of Johnson at this point, but it might behoove us to keep an eye on the polls and vote accordingly when the time comes.


But remember the 2016 Presidential Election, had HRC ahead by double digits…. And we know what happened there…

Poll are only as useful as the respondents are honest…. Providing misinformation can skew those polling results…

Certainly don't want Kotek in there and Drazen is a RINO, no friend to gun owners or constitutionalists…
 
Heres the thing. I'm on Betsy's email list; they claim to have gotten more than 48,000 signatures from the petitions to put her on the ballot for November, "more than double the number needed to be put on the ballot". We'll see if she indeed can pull a lot of votes away from Kotek.
I think she can and more then that I think an awful lot of OryGunions are fed up with the Dems and even more so with the Rino's like Drazen!

Don't trust any polls, they are biased in hopes of splitting the votes to garentee a Kotex win, don't fall for their lies!
 
Heres the thing. I'm on Betsy's email list; they claim to have gotten more than 48,000 signatures from the petitions to put her on the ballot for November, "more than double the number needed to be put on the ballot". We'll see if she indeed can pull a lot of votes away from Kotek.
According to her website, her in-house polling showed her in a 2-way race with Kotek, with Drazen behind. If that poll (early July) was accurate, her support has fallen off.


Don't trust any polls, they are biased in hopes of splitting the votes to garentee a Kotex win, don't fall for their lies!
But remember the 2016 Presidential Election, had HRC ahead by double digits…. And we know what happened there…

Poll are only as useful as the respondents are honest…. Providing misinformation can skew those polling results…

Certainly don't want Kotek in there and Drazen is a RINO, no friend to gun owners or constitutionalists…
If polls are biased, they are usually biased by left-leaning media organizations and polling firms oversampling democrats. This is a statistical fact verifiable by examining their polling methods. I find it hard to believe that these organizations are so devious and clever that they would skew results in favor of a Republican candidate in order to persuade Republicans to vote for their own candidate instead of an independent. :s0076: Doesn't pass the logic test.

I also find it hard to believe that in the liberal State of Oregon a poll respondent would falsely state to a pollster that they were the supporter of a Republican candidate. What would be their motivation? It is more likely they would do the opposite, IMO.

But, like I said before, let's watch the polls and see.

ETA: If it turns out your only realistic choice is between a RINO and a hard-core Marxist, what then?
 
According to her website, her in-house polling showed her in a 2-way race with Kotek, with Drazen behind. If that poll (early July) was accurate, her support has fallen off.




If polls are biased, they are usually biased by left-leaning media organizations and polling firms oversampling democrats. This is a statistical fact verifiable by examining their polling methods. I find it hard to believe that these organizations are so devious and clever that they would skew results in favor of a Republican candidate in order to persuade Republicans to vote for their own candidate instead of an independent. :s0076: Doesn't pass the logic test.

I also find it hard to believe that in the liberal State of Oregon a poll respondent would falsely state to a pollster that they were the supporter of a Republican candidate. What would be their motivation? It is more likely they would do the opposite, IMO.

But, like I said before, let's watch the polls and see.

ETA: If it turns out your only realistic choice is between a RINO and a hard-core Marxist, what then?
Again, according to Sec of State; there are more Non-Affiliated voters than Democrat voters, by like almost 0.1%( :rolleyes: ) overall... and 10% more than there are Republican voters registered. RH6PGKLOZ5EJ5BFTYS6H2EAJQU.jpeg

The problem is even if Drazan got 100% of the Republican bloc in Oregon, she is still going to lose to Kotek; but Betsy has the best chance by numbers (Non-Affiliated) to beat both of them. Did any of the polling ask "nonaffiliated voters"?
 
Again, according to Sec of State; there are more Non-Affiliated voters than Democrat voters, by like almost 0.1%( :rolleyes: ) overall... and 10% more than there are Republican voters registered. View attachment 1261403

The problem is even if Drazan got 100% of the Republican bloc in Oregon, she is still going to lose to Kotek; but Betsy has the best chance by numbers (Non-Affiliated) to beat both of them. Did any of the polling ask "nonaffiliated voters"?
Of course they don't, they're not part of the f-ed up bipartisan system.
 
Again, according to Sec of State; there are more Non-Affiliated voters than Democrat voters, by like almost 0.1%( :rolleyes: ) overall... and 10% more than there are Republican voters registered. View attachment 1261403

The problem is even if Drazan got 100% of the Republican bloc in Oregon, she is still going to lose to Kotek; but Betsy has the best chance by numbers (Non-Affiliated) to beat both of them. Did any of the polling ask "nonaffiliated voters"?
Well, that's a good question. And since you've brought it up, I'll look into it and see what I can find.

Pollsters use different methods at different times. Sometimes they sample adults of voting age, sometimes registered voters only, and sometimes self-identified "likely voters." The polls that are considered most accurate are those that sample likely voters. But I've never heard of a poll in a general election race, as opposed to a primary race, for example, that sampled just dems and Republicans. Usually they sample a cross section of the adult or voting population, which would include non-affiliated persons (Sometimes they state in the fine print the percentage of each - dem, Republican, and non-affiliated - in the sample). Given that, my presumption would be that, yes, these results include non-affiliated or independent voters. But I'll see if the KOIN poll published their methodology and get back.
 
This ain't gonna make some of you happy, but this is what I found about the polls:

There have only been 4 published polls on this race since May. The oldest is the poll cited in the KOIN article (conducted by Nelson Research, a non-partisan poling firm in Salem), which showed Drazen in the lead by 2 points. According to KOIN:

"...the survey, which took place from May 25-27, had a sample size of 516 likely voters. The majority of voters polled were within the tri-county area, followed by the mid-Willamette region and Eastern Oregon, respectively."

I can't find any info on the party affiliations, or not, of those sampled. However, the encouraging thing here is that the population distribution of the sample seems to reflect the actual population distribution of the state.

Then there is a June poll published by Betsy Johnson in July, which showed the race 1)Kotek 2)Johnson 3)Drazen. This poll was paid for by her campaign. According to an article I found, linked below, her polling method may have been a bit deceptive:

"It asked if they would rather vote for a progressive Democrat, a qualified common sense independent or a devout Trump Republican — which does not exactly define Christine Drazan. But she is a Republican, and it does seem to slant the question against her."

Then there is a later June poll paid for by the Republican party which shows Drazen up by 1 point. For particulars on all 3 polls above, see:

The most recent poll was conducted this month by Big Penguin Polling, an independent polling firm, which shows Drazen up by 3.4%. I can't find any details. ETA: 1290 likely voters- pretty good sample size for this population.


So, 3 out of 4 polls conducted to date, with the exception of the Betsy Johnson poll which used somewhat deceptive questions, show Drazen slightly in the lead. The Crowdwisdom.live article, which declares Kotek in the lead by virtue of the average of polls, does not include the Nelson Research poll (Drazen ahead) but does include the deceptive Betsy Johnson poll which had Kotek in the lead.

 
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This ain't gonna make some of you happy, but this is what I found about the polls:

There have only been 4 published polls on this race since May. The oldest is the poll cited in the KOIN article (conducted by Nelson Research, a non-partisan poling firm in Salem), which showed Drazen in the lead by 2 points. According to KOIN:

"...the survey, which took place from May 25-27, had a sample size of 516 likely voters. The majority of voters polled were within the tri-county area, followed by the mid-Willamette region and Eastern Oregon, respectively."

I can't find any info on the party affiliations, or not, of those sampled. However, the encouraging thing here is that the population distribution of the sample seems to reflect the actual population distribution of the state.

Then there is a June poll published by Betsy Johnson in July, which showed the race 1)Kotek 2)Johnson 3)Drazen. This poll was paid for by her campaign. According to an article I found, linked below, her polling method may have been a bit deceptive:

"It asked if they would rather vote for a progressive Democrat, a qualified common sense independent or a devout Trump Republican — which does not exactly define Christine Drazan. But she is a Republican, and it does seem to slant the question against her."

Then there is a later June poll paid for by the Republican party which shows Drazen up by 1 point. For particulars on all 3 polls above, see:

The most recent poll was conducted this month by Big Penguin Polling, an independent polling firm, which shows Drazen up by 3.4%. I can't find any details.


So, 3 out of 4 polls conducted to date, with the exception of the Betsy Johnson poll which used somewhat deceptive questions, show Drazen slightly in the lead. The Crowdwisdom.live article, which declares Kotek in the lead by virtue of the average of polls, does not include the Nelson Research poll (Drazen ahead) but does include the deceptive Betsy Johnson poll which had Kotek in the lead.

This is useful info. 516 likely voters in May, 1,290 likely voters in the Aug Penguin poll; for the May poll; they seem to have used two predominantly Democratic areas to 1 predominantly Republican area. Tri County area is strongly Democratic, Mid-Willamette includes Salem, McMinnville/Yamhill County, Corvallis, Eugene. Edit. East Oregon does not include Bend/Redmond as thats usually considered Central Oregon.
 
I like Betsy, but Drazan claims her first order of business will be to repeal the "personal use possession" laws, and I gotta tell you, that's pretty tempting. It'd be a big step towards cleaning up Portland and then the rest of the state.
 
I like Betsy, but Drazan claims her first order of business will be to repeal the "personal use possession" laws, and I gotta tell you, that's pretty tempting. It'd be a big step towards cleaning up Portland and then the rest of the state.
The problem again... even if somehow, the Registered Republicans came out 100% to vote en masse and they all voted Drazan; that's only 24% of the registered voters in Oregon, against 34% Democrats and 34% Non Affiliated voters, with the remainder being 3rd/minor parties. Drazan would have to get no less than 100% of the registered Republicans, plus 10-15% of the NonAffiliated voters to have a chance. Based on her platform, I have serious doubts that she can even pull 5% of the NonAffiliated voters. Betsy on the other hand....... she would have an easier time pulling the votes from the 2 major parties plus the NonAffiliated.
 
The problem again... even if somehow, the Registered Republicans came out 100% to vote en masse and they all voted Drazan; that's only 24% of the registered voters in Oregon, against 34% Democrats and 34% Non Affiliated voters, with the remainder being 3rd/minor parties. Drazan would have to get no less than 100% of the registered Republicans, plus 10-15% of the NonAffiliated voters to have a chance. Based on her platform, I have serious doubts that she can even pull 5% of the NonAffiliated voters. Betsy on the other hand....... she would have an easier time pulling the votes from the 2 major parties plus the NonAffiliated.
I think Betsy is running independent to pull votes from drazan, honestly. I think the fix has been in for awhile. I suppose it's equally likely she's trying to funnel votes from Kotek. Last poll I saw had drazan over both.

Frankly, my concern is mainly gun rights. Until I get out of the state I'd like for my stuff to stay legal. This place is undeserving of my taxes.
 
I understand the importance of a pro-2A governor, but the governor doesn't make law. Oregon's problem is in legislature. As long as the dems have a supermajority there (both houses) they can override any veto by the governor.

That said, just say "Betsy is too far right for Oregon," and she has my vote. ;)
Only thing Betsy is going to be good for is taking away votes from Kotex. VOTE For Drazen. It's our only hope. Plus this stupid gun ban thing is a red herring. No way to will pass Scotus muster.
 

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