Analysts Were Wrong About the Gun Industry

Discussion in 'Firearm-Related News' started by etrain16, Jun 17, 2017.

  1. etrain16

    etrain16
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    I came across an interesting article. As we've been discussing, since Trump was elected, there has been, seemingly, a sharp decline in gun sales across the country. And while there was a dip from the previous record years, it appears folks are still buying guns at a rapid (though not record) pace, and gun manufacturer's stocks are on the rise.

    This appears to be good news for us. I'm guessing lower prices and a number of good rebate programs are helping to keep sales alive. That, coupled with the fact that people can finally buy what they want - the shelves aren't empty like they were in 2013/2014, it seems to be a positive indicator that Americans are still interested in buying lots of guns!

    Shares of S&W have jumped 23% in the last 3 months while Ruger has jumped 31%!

    Link to the story: This is the best indicator yet that analysts were wrong about the gun industry

    Here are some excerpts for those that don't want to follow the link:

    Two years ago, the FBI reported that it conducted a record number of background checks on potential gun buyers in May, more than it had ever done before for that month. It would launch a 19-month-long streak that would culminate in more than 27.5 million background checks performed in 2016, 20% more than the year before and over two and a half times time the number conducted 10 years prior.

    While the November elections seemed to gut that growth, as December's background checks dropped 16% from a year ago followed by a steep 20% drop in January, the numbers have been climbing since. Now that the FBI has reported results for May 2017, it looks as though the firearms industry is back, guns a-blazin'.


    What the pundits missed, of course, was that there was no real slump at all, just that gun buying wasn't running at the same white-hot pace it had gone at last year. Anyone who cared to look could see that even the supposedly low numbers being reported each month in 2017 were still running well ahead of 2015, which, as noted, was also a record year.

    Fear of new gun-control laws doesn't create demand for guns; it merely affects the timing of the purchase. Thinking your right to buy an AR-15 might be limited in the next few months, you'll buy one now instead of waiting. Removing that concern doesn't eliminate the demand for the new firearm; it just takes it off the "must buy now" list. The demand remains regardless, a point analysts seemed to overlook in declaring doom for the firearms industry.

    Still, the FBI's May numbers show the elections didn't shoot the manufacturers in the foot, and while we might not get another 19-month record run, gun demand is healthy and the gun manufacturers remain good investments.
     
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  2. AndyinEverson

    AndyinEverson
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    I think that the demand for firearms will always be there ... It is up to us to make sure that the availability and the means to obtain firearms also stick around.

    In my little corner of the world I have seen more firearms* on the shelves and more ammo available to be purchased , than in the recent past.

    *Firearms as in a AR15 type rifle or yet another black plastic stocked rifle or shotgun.
    Nothing against the AR15 or black plastic rifles / shotguns ... And I understand that those are the "Hot Ticket" items right now ...Just get tired of seeing what appears to be the same gun everywhere I go.
    But that might be the subject of a different thread....
    Andy
     
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  3. etrain16

    etrain16
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    I do like AR's, AK's, etc., but once that itch is scratched, I find that my interests turn to more traditional firearms. An M1 Garand, for example, is high on my list at the moment. Also looking down the road to a good bolt gun, probably in .308

    AR's are fun, even more fun to build, and I wouldn't be without one, but I think more classic guns still have a solid place in the hearts of gun owners. My favorite thing about the AR is this - of all the guns available to us, the AR is the F-you to the anti's. It is the consummate symbol of the 2nd amendment and gun owners and the thing the anti's really, really hate. So, for that reason, I will always have at least 1 AR, though it will most likely always be more than that ;)

    And that said, I'm glad folks, like you and many others, still have a love for those old black powder guns. They are part of history, and really, still have a solid place in the gun culture.
     
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  4. Pops1911

    Pops1911
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    Yeah me too. Everywhere I seem to go window case shopping up here there are the same selections of the usual black guns. Nothing new or different enough that grabs my attention and credit card. One of the reasons why I research on the 'net then purchase from my LGS. Easy peasy that way. I get what I want and they get my business. Win-win.
     
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  5. AndyinEverson

    AndyinEverson
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    The AR15 is indeed a great rifle ...even a basic one without fancy sights , scopes or other "needed" add-ons.
    Generally light weight , easy to shoot , accurate , low recoil , easy to get ammo ... Lots to like about something like that.
    Also the rifle can be similar to what is issued to the armed services and having ways and means of getting a rifle like that is important to keep in mind and to make sure that we do not lose that ability.

    But my biggest beef with black plastic guns is that to my eye , they all tend to look the same.
    Its not like looking at different wood stocked guns , where the stock alone can at times make or break a purchase.
    Wood stocks and blued steel , just connects to me better.
    Be it a original flintlock , a reproduction Civil War rifled musket or a classic sporting rifle from the 1870's through 1960's .... I just prefer these types.

    In the end though , its all about the keeping the availability of firearms easy for the law abiding citizen to obtain and safely enjoy ... No matter what the gun is made from or whatever name or label is on it.
    Andy
     
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  6. IronMonster

    IronMonster
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    I know I have done my part. I have had a few windfalls in the last year and spent much more on firearms and related purchases than I normally would or could. Most all of those purchases were driven by price. I spent the dough because it seemed wise to do so.

    I've bought 5 Shields for instance, brings my total up to 7.

    The first one I bought years ago cost me around $400 out the door. These cost between $214 and $244 out the door ( I bought a .45, a .40 and three 9's is why they vary)

    My feeling is at $225 for such a great little gun I should have one for a bug out bag, one for each truck and an extra just for good measure. I don't remember in my life being able to buy so much pistol new for so little dough


    Before you discount that and say "back in 1985 I bought a such and such for $225 and it was a better gun".

    Concider if you allow for inflation $200 spent today was worth only $87 1985 dollars. $$200 1985 dollars is worth $457 today

    When you think of that that way, less than $90 1985 dollars, you can see how remarkably cheap they really are.


    My point is I only bought these because of price, I never would have bought 5 more at $350-$400 each

    Most everything else I bought on price. I spent $500 yesterday on Sharps bolts and BCG's. Only reason was the bolts were 45% off and the BCG 25% off both with free shipping.

    Countless other deals the same way.

    There are two observations I can make, Folks like me who are buying because stuff is bottom dollar price will stop buying when prices normalize, and sales at give away fire sale prices do not make for a stable, growing industry.

    No matter what the sales numbers say we are in a slump, the firesale prices on everything everyplace you look is a clear indication
     
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  7. etrain16

    etrain16
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    I do have a theory on those 'fire sale' prices. I think manufacturers, vendors, etc. were building up inventory up until the end of 2017, in anticipation of a Hillary Clinton win. Basically, building on speculation. In this case, it backfired on them due to the Trump win, leaving them with a bunch of extra stock and a gun buying public stepping away, for a time from the fear buying motivation of the last few years. People have relaxed a bit and instead of buying on impulse, based on fear (of unavailability or more gun laws restricting what you can buy), buying because the deals are really good right now.

    So I'm no so sure it's a slump as much as those sale prices are manufacturers trying to normalize inventory. Their stock values are up across the board, so that seems to be good news for them.

    I'm just glad folks are still buying, keeping the industry happy.
     
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  8. The Heretic

    The Heretic
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    I am just glad that prices are down and rimfire ammo is now available in mass quantities.

    I do recommend to people that if they have a firearm that they really want, and they have the funds, that they get it before Jan. 2019 - my bet is that the 2018 congressional elections will tip the balance in Congress in favor of the democrats and then we will see a different Congress altogether.

    Also, we haven't seen much anti-gun come out of DC in the last decade in the way of laws, but we definitely have in WA & OR state laws, and nothing has really changed in the makeup of the legislature or governors offices there. Still anti-gun and still willing to push that agenda.

    So buy while you still can is my thought.
     
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  9. cigars

    cigars
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    Thus my last purchase of a Marlin 1895 GBL 45-70gov. I'm all tacti-cooled out at the moment.
     
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  10. etrain16

    etrain16
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    Absolutely agree. People are warned. Guns and ammo are probably the most available they'll be, so don't wait. I know my plan is to not be caught off guard again. It happened once before, I learned my lesson.

    And I agree, the 2018 mid-term elections will probably shift things, probably not toward gun control, not until they have the White House and congress again, but seeing a shift in power back toward those motivated to push for gun control might further embolden state legislatures to pick up the pace.
     
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  11. nwslopoke

    nwslopoke
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    I personally know several people previously opposed to guns come around. I think now that they have seen people they thought they could trust act up like "the others", their eyes are now open.

    YouTube any Anti Trump group in Portland and see the so called opened minded people display their version of peaceful resistance.
     
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  12. 308

    308
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    Ive scratched most all rifle related itches and focus on tiny details to pollish them up like better sights or triggers.

    Within the last couple years I've focused on my big weakness with hand guns. A training class helped tons and I've found some handguns, namely the CZ brand are in my opinion inherently superior. The CZ Shadow2, P10c and P09 have made our SigP229 and Glocks appear as rubbish in comparrison. As one can see from the descriptions above, we too have contributed to the gun sales total, but not based upon greed or fear but rather looking for the best piece for our favorite hobby.
     
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  13. nammac

    nammac
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    If you have the financial wherewithal, now is indeed the time to be stocking up, arms, ammo, parts... This is the best I've seen things in the past half dozen years...

    No telling how mid-terms go, but if the White House can't shake off the rabid liberals and their droning on about Russia, collusion and obstruction of justice, the conservatives will indeed take a hit... Then we'll see prices rise again as demand increases...
     
  14. The Heretic

    The Heretic
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    I don't like Trump and while I think the dems are doing their utmost to smear him - some of it is sticking and it seems where there is smoke there is fire. Plus, the GOP did much the same thing fro Obama. This is politics and that is the way it rolls today.

    That said, even without the smear campaigns/etc., there will be enough people who will be hurt or disappointed by Trump that it is almost guaranteed that the pendulum will swing back to the left - the only question is how far. So I would plan on that happening. I sure hope the HPA is passed and signed into law soon.
     
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  15. WasrNwarpaint

    WasrNwarpaint
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    I would like an investigation into the increase in investors of these gun manufacturers

    I have a suspicion you will find many of the democrats constantly pushing gun control are heavily invested....like gore mr global warming is HEAVILY invested in the green energy
     
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  16. etrain16

    etrain16
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    Interesting theory. Invest heavily, then drive up demand/panic buying buy pushing for gun control. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me.

    I wonder what Bloomberg is invested in?
     
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  17. Misteramax

    Misteramax
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    If things slow down I'd like to see manufacturers crack down on qc. Would really enjoy seeing guns that don't look like they got put together on a Monday by the angry employee.
     
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  18. WasrNwarpaint

    WasrNwarpaint
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    I dont see how it could not be so with the crooked elites......

    its a fact we have crooked judges and law enforcement heavily invested in "prisons for profit"
    its all about the end game.......control and take the cash
     
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  19. RVTECH

    RVTECH
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    Except for stuff like this - minimum one year wait for one from either of the TWO U.S. mfgs of these so I am looking at used - such as this one in Pennsylvania.
    pix678864947.jpg
     
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