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An Interesting Statistical Story

Discussion in 'Legal & Political Archive' started by Mr2000, Dec 15, 2012.

  1. Mr2000

    Mr2000 Grants Pass, OR Member

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    So I was doing a little research today in the wake of the school shooting in Connecticut. I decided that since the Brady campaign is the most avid anti-gun organization in the United States, using their own stats against them would be a blast. So after doing quite a bit of research and math I determined the following.


    Out of 50 states plus DC only 49 were either ranked by Brady or had relevant data available. (DC and FL being the non counted states.)


    Brady's rank structure ranged from the highest: CA @ 81/100 and the lowest being a tie between AK,AZ,UT @ 0/100.


    The average of all the states ranked by Brady was 15.8/100.


    Of the states ranked greater than 15.8/100 only 11 made the cut. (CA,IL,NC,PA,MD,NJ,NY,CT,RI,MA,HA.)


    Of those 11 states the average number of murders with a gun was 332. This compared to the average of the states ranked less than 15.8/100 which was 130.


    Even if you were to use the median of all the states ranked by Brady minus FL (which is 6) then: The average number of murders with a gun at or less than the mean of 6 would be: 114 and, the average number of murders with a gun at or greater than the mean of 6 would be: 215.


    Thus regardless of how you skew the statistics the outcome is clear. Of the states ranked by Brady and that have relevant data, those ranked highest by Brady in terms of gun control laws also have the highest number of murders with a gun and the states ranked lowest by Brady have the lowest number of murders with a gun.


    So in closing, less gun control truly does equal less gun murder and the Brady Bunch are not only wrong but are truly incompetent in that their own ranking system works against them.


    I hope you enjoyed this statistical debate, I will put more out in the coming weeks and months. Am I a statistical genius? No and I have likely done some math incorrectly but I think overall the results don't lie.

    DATA RETRIEVED FROM:

    FBI — Crime in the U.S. 2010

    http://www.bradycampaign.org/stategunlaws/scorecard
     
    aksu747, handydan918, DMax and 6 others like this.
  2. DMax

    DMax Yamhill Well-Known Member

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    Start an email and send it around the world especially to everyones liberal friends or you could post it on the petition Gov website and talk about using it against them
     
  3. Keane

    Keane Hillsboro, OR Active Member

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    I'm curious... what happens when you adjust that to be 'per capita' average instead of total? I only ask because liberals will, CA and NY have really high ratings, yet also have a TON of people. It isn't terribly fair to compare them to Wyoming or something on a strict killed-count.
     
    Lush and (deleted member) like this.
  4. Mr2000

    Mr2000 Grants Pass, OR Member

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    @Keane: I agree entirely and I'm working on those numbers. Problem is I'm tired and just that bit of info I threw out took forever to properly research and develop. I will do my best to get the per capita numbers up soon.
     
    Lush and (deleted member) like this.
  5. Keane

    Keane Hillsboro, OR Active Member

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    Thanks! The info you've got is still very interesting. If we still come out ahead after you break down the per-capita numbers, I wonder how you argue against them? They'd have to come up with some sort of reason why guns alone don't cause crime, and there ya go!

    Interestingly, I had an acquaintance go on a bit of an anti-gun rant on facebook, and after moving the goals a bunch he started name calling. I called him out on it, and we're no longer facebook friends :) Quite handy way for that to work out, eh?
     
  6. 8ball

    8ball WA Quit talkin' and start chalking!

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    You need to do the analysis per capita, and over time. Is a high crime rate and gun control linked by causation or is it a correlation? From what I've read, it's the latter e.g. gun control is an (ineffective) response to historical high crime rates.
     
  7. Keane

    Keane Hillsboro, OR Active Member

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    I just did a BUNCH of work (I used different numbers), and scatter-plotted the relationship between Brady ranking & Murder/Non-Negligent Homicide per-capita. I chose this because it seemed the most honest, and I didn't see an area in the FBI chart I had that showed broken up by state & weapon.

    Both the HIGHEST crime state and LOWEST crime state are low Brady ratings. All of the higher Brady ranked states are fairly evenly distributed. In fact, the only thing I found of interest is that Louisiana has the highest rate in this category, yet only a 2!

    I did the same with Violent crime rate, and noticed no association between violent crime and brady rating.

    It seems that a high Brady Rating doesn't DO anything, but it isn't a negative either.

    My conclusion is that gun control has no noticeable effect.