Ammo Shortage Coming - Letter From Brownell's

[Mac_Fan]

I'm not worried. A case of Federal XM193 is $50.00 cheaper now than it was five years ago. Everybody, even manufacturers, learned a lot after the last election. I don't think we'll see shortages like that again. They like making money too much.

 

[Phather]

so, make more ammo? If I ran a shoe company and my shoes keep selling out, Id make more.

Or you could just jack up the prices and make more profit off the same amount of labor/product. Or jack them up even higher and then announce everything as a limited run like Nike does.

 

[Navvet]

I work at a gun store and we cannot replace our ammo fast enough. People are buying it by the bucket load. I know the owner of RBS and he said they are running 12 hour shifts and cant keep up. Our 223 order has been delayed at least a week. Possible the big manufacturers are making an oil shortage type of hype, but it is getting harder to get. Maybe OBAMA is giving tax credits for less production.

 

[Phather]

This sounds a lot like oil to me. The speculators running around screaming "We are running out of oil! Who knows how much longer we can keep this up? Demand is eclipsing production!" Then they raise prices. I would really like to believe that ammo wholesalers and producers have gotten very comfortable with the inflated prices and are trying to scare people into another ammo shortage so they can keep their profits high. I really hope another shortage isn't looming in the near future.

 

[AMProducts]

As a manufacturer I can shed a little bit of light on this.

Since 2004-2005 ammunition prices have been relatively high, and only got higher in 2008-2009 with the emmaculation of our lord and savior BHO. However, in 2010-2011 ammo sales hit the floor, I know more than a few places that were essentially idled, due to lack of demand or lack of components. Since about June of last year, supply has eased and it's now fairly easy to get components and raw materials. One of the major supply hiccups that's hit a lot of manufacturers is Jamison Brass is currently in receivership, apparently when people loan you money, they want to be paid back at some point. (crazy I know!) However all of the common components available from the major manufacturers (primers namely) are all in huge supply. I was talking to one of my suppliers the other day, he says he has 25m primers in stock, and is going to build that up to 75m by the end of this year, I didn't dare ask how much powder he has, but he gets it by the truckload from GD/SMP (minimum order 20,000lbs).

I also read a report from the NSSF that was the result of a survey in mid 2011, that reported that most manufacturers had a 200% stock of product that was waiting to be sold, this was largely due to demand being so low (too many full closets), and from what I've seen over the last 2-4 months has been a steady decline in ammunition prices. .223 ammo has been dropping from $400/cs down to $300/cs in a lot of places. Unless there is a huge push for more gun control in the next 6 months, or suddenly the economy improves and the average consumer is shooting money out of his butt, I don't see too many reasons for demand to increase. What we may be seeing currently is the people who were waiting for prices to drop finally taking advantage of waiting out peak prices. I know this is one thing I was doing during the crunch, and with a loosening supply and falling prices, I'm taking advantage and building up my reserves.

On the other hand, the price of gasoline just went f'ing crazy in a big way, I've seen gas up to $5 in LA (where I live), which has been a major source of consternation in preparation for my move to washington later this year. High gas prices mean higher commodity prices (including copper and lead), as well as substantially higher prices for fuel and transportation costs.

If you have no ammo, now might be a good time to go out and buy a few hundred rounds, maybe in a few weeks buy a few hundred more, if prices fall, maybe buy 1000. If you have a closet that contains 10,000 rounds of ammo, and 50,000 primers and a ton of powder, you might want to sit this one out. I am anticipating falling demand and falling prices for ammo for the near term, the two deciding factors for how 2012 is going to go are going to be fuel prices and the election. If BHO is in the lead come the end of september, and romgritchpaultorum can't get his act together ammo prices are going to spike. At the very least, if you arn't buying ammo right now, think about putting some money away, so when it looks like you're going to have to, you can.

 

[deadshot2]

Just another 'cycle' that's occurred regularly for many years. Was talking to my component supplier and he told me the only difference is that everyone jumped on the Fear Bandwagon after Obama was elected.

As for Brownell's letter, didn't they just recently add ammo to their lineup? Sounds like a marketing ploy to me.

I buy for my expected needs, period. Components are in place for the next year and plenty of ammo as well. I just wait for the hysteria to wear off and then stock up again.

Why is it so many in the "Gun Culture" make fun of all the "sheeple" and then when someone whispers "ammo's going to be short" they all behave just like those they scorn.

 

[Spitpatch]

I'd take anything Brownell's offered to me as quality: either product or advice (bought from them early, continue to do so).

I don't buy much ammunitiion (except for rimfire). Whether "created" or "market driven", the first thing that hurts (me) is primer shortages. I do firmly believe that the not-so-recent shortage of such was not initially created by hysteria, but by design at levels we can only imagine. I'll be following the old mountain-man adage: "keep your powder dry", and add to that, stockpiling primers.

I think this is spurts of what shortages we can expect to drive us to consult our American Rifleman issues from the 40's to allow us ingenious ways to continue to shoot. You young bucks better look for garage sales that have that valuable literature.

Within days of reports that Israel is seriously considering a pre-emptive strike on Iran, take note of what happened to gasoline prices. If war breaks out (and it will be greater than any Afghan/Iraq expeditionary exploit we undertook in the last 20 years), look to brass and primers becoming nonexistant on the shelves here.

We in the U.S. are lulled by abundance. It takes very little effort by those in control (and hysteria created by design) to empty shelves. Consider a mere loaf of bread: the Soviet Union controlled each one placed on any shelf in any store in entire Eastern Europe (and thus the populace) for over forty years. (Easier to make than a .30-06 cartridge, and yet even "handloaders" went hungry.)

 

[woody06]

I've been checking several locations for the past 3 weeks and no one has small pistol primers.

 

[Mark W.]

I've been checking several locations for the past 3 weeks and no one has small pistol primers.

Small Pistol Primers #1-1/2

<broken link removed>

Small Pistol Primers #1-1/2

Powder Valley, Inc.

Powder Valley, Inc.

Powder Valley, Inc.

Powder Valley, Inc.

Keep looking

 

[driftin]

There are lots of new shooters out there and ammo goes fast with all these hi cap mags. Looks like people are picking up a few things as they become employed again. Ammo is one of them. Who knows, nothing wrong with having some inventory for plinking.

 

[deadshot2]

I had a "trusted source" warn me about a shortage coming. I was looking at a box of bullets. He suggested I grab all I could right now as they weren't going to be available, probably for years as the manufacturer had an explosion and fire at their factory and all production had halted.

It's been a year now and I've been able to buy all the bullets I wanted from this manufacturer. It turned out that the shop had a large supply and they weren't selling as fast as they expected. Maybe they would have if they'd charged a more reasonable price

 

[pietro beretta]

Bi-Mart has lots of the UMC 250 9mm packs, and a 2$ off sale. (122nd Ave.)

 

[pietro beretta]

Thankfully a decision of this nature is not up to one person to decide....... lets just not talk about executive orders

This first term of Obama wasn't able to get enough support from his own party to get a new ban in the works, thankfully the 2nd amendment has supporters on both sides.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The elections are coming. Either of the prez front runners are some level of anti gun. It's a no brainer

I am going to be stocking up on centerfire components and 22 LR as I have AR15 22 kits and most of the brass I need

 

[G1GRANDEUR]

It's normal for tax return season.

 

[Glockman19]

Bi-Mart has lots of the UMC 250 9mm packs, and a 2$ off sale. (122nd Ave.)

I was just at Bimart in Hilsboro and I bought 4 of the last 7-8 boxes and they were completely sold out of most all common hnad gun ammo. I asked and they simply said its on order but not showing up (backordered). Quit a bit of rifle and shotgun ammo on the shelves though.

 

[deadshot2]

I find this "A shortage is coming, A shortage is coming" a little humorous. I just received my Spring Shipment of Catalogs, all offering ammo at prices we haven't seen since Obama was "anointed President". .223/5.56 is now less than $0.30/round and cases of 1,000 plentiful.

If there was a true shortage in the works, you'd think the marketers would be trying to squeeze as much money as possible from the product they have on hand, just like the Oil Companies.

 

[Mark W.]

I was just at Bimart in Hilsboro and I bought 4 of the last 7-8 boxes and they were completely sold out of most all common hnad gun ammo. I asked and they simply said its on order but not showing up (backordered). Quit a bit of rifle and shotgun ammo on the shelves though.

As I said before the individual stores do not warehouse ammo or reloading components and are on an ordering cycle. SO they have a sale. They sell out the inventory brought into the store for the sale. Their sales then show up at the corp office where an order is sent to the distrabution warehouse. If the warehouse has the required inventory the order is filled and on the next truck (most likely not more often then Weekly) the need is filled. If not the warehouse orders from their supplier/distributor. When a large enough order is place for them to get their price the order is placed. And it works its way down the supply chain to the indiviual store.

On some items like special spam cans of surplus ammo it might have been a one time deal based on a special purchse by the distributor. With something as common as remington .38spl 125gr flat nose. They most likely have to buy a Pallet worth at a time to get a price good enough to make a profit on a sale. So its possible that virtually all of the in stock has to be gone for it to be reordered.

Stores are still trying to figure out how to deal with the change from people buying ammo when they need it to people going in an buying everything on the shelf the first hour of the sale. Then the stores are left looking like theres a shortage when there isn't a shortage. Its just that all their inventory is being stored in your buddies garage.

Until 2008 NO ONE I knew though having 10,000 rounds of ammo for each caliber was some kind of requirement. I been an active shooter since I was 14 (thats 50 human years ago) and I doubt if you don't include .22 rimfire that at no time until the last 3-4 years have I ever had more then 2000 rounds of ammo for the 10 calibers on average I have had during this time. AND I reload.

Now you could say "Well back then you could do that the ammo was on the shelf to buy when needed NOW its not" well it would be if all of it wasn't being stacked up in garages and basements and the bottom of safes and bedroom closets.

There is no shortage. there is a illogical shift in purchasing models causing an artificial appearance of a shortage that only real result is an across the broad incearse in ammo and reloading components in an attempt by stores/distributors/manufacturers to control the runaway panic.

How does it help a manufacturer to run out of the materials they bought last year in Oct of this year because everything they produce is bought up and squrriled away. They can't keep their emps working on sweeping the floors with no lead no copper no chemicals etc. So they also can't ramp up to meet the demand. NOW you could say well why don't they think ahead. Well OK lets say they invest a huge amount of money in 25% more materials and new production lines and after a year the Panic buying stops and the public has to start paying off the CC debt. Well the public is still out shooting they are all happy afterall they have ever bit of ammo they can possibly afford. While the manufacturers are stuck with no buyers ware houses full of matertials and emps drifting off to find other jobs or whittling down their unemp accounts.

its not a supply shortage it's a demand overage that is the problem.

Nuff said

 

[deadshot2]

And just wait until we're fully out of Iraq and Afghanistan. .223/5.56 and 9mm will be available in HUGE quantities.

Some of it's starting to show up already as "over runs".

 

[Mark W.]

WOW BI MART must be expecting Armageddon. The Lancaster store in Salem Had so much reloading powder and Bullets that they had it stacked up on the counter trying to find room for it. One of the clerks was busting boxes as he put cases of .22 shells on the shelves to replace the stuff recently sold.

The ONLY thing I could find they were out of was small pistol primers and the guy said over the weekend they had a mini run on them that burned through their inventory. And he expects more in the next delivery from their warehouse.