American Blackout

[oregonty]

I found an interesting website about a show (American Blackout) that will be aired soon (Oct. 27th 9:00east on Nat Geo). I found it to be interesting and entertaining. Enjoy!

<broken link removed>

Read More

 

[TapRackNGo]

No cable, sound interesting.

 

[cookie]

Most peoples IQ level would go up without 2 hours of TV.

 

[Sodbuster]

Just another reminder, in November, the Feds are going to run tests and sample blackouts on the grid to see how reaction would be. You just never know when it's going to happen. Just like a thief, they don't send out warnings.

Sodbuster

 

[Fast Eddie]

Just another reminder, in November, the Feds are going to run tests and sample blackouts on the grid to see how reaction would be. You just never know when it's going to happen. Just like a thief, they don't send out warnings.

Sodbuster

??

 

[mosinguy1]

Haven't read it yet ut here is the article.............http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/u...drill-will-simulate-a-knockout-blow.html?_r=0

 

[Siglvr]

Nice find Oregonty. Some more back story here. The rumor a few years or so back is that the Iranians had been able to procure 2 warheads from the old USSR break up. It appears that is is fairly probable. The US had spent a lot of scratch to help secure them in the various satellite country's, and would know if any were "missing". Reading the US reactions to Iranians in this scenario is one explanation of our reticence. I've only read the Iranians intimating that they had these but stories have come from a couple directions to make it believable, and @ 2-3 years back when Israel was publicizing their anger about the Iranian nuclear weapon build-out, the Iranians announced that they would be running 2 of their Navy ships up and down the Atlantic off the East Coast. They also hinted that they had Nucs. Now, everyone knows that the technical difficulties of any kind of accuracy would most likely be beyond their capability's. But truthfully, the Iranians have a of of clever folks over there, many even highly trained to be engineers in the US - so no one wants to underestimate this possibility. That possibility is that they might be able to fit one to a jury rigged missile and get it up via a ship launch high enough to cause an EMP airburst over the east coast. Even judging it to be a smaller tactical warhead of 220 kilotons, a successful air burst over NY or Washington DC would be beyond catastrophic. IT WOULD MAKE ELECTRICITY DISAPPEAR FOR A LONG LONG TIME. Flatten some buildings too, but everything folks are use to having would not work. Cars, refrigerators, TV's, computers, about everything.

While all this is going on, we've been reading about the back and forth back room computer conflict that the software engineer/hackers have been having. It's pretty close to an all out war with a lot of tit for tat. We occasionally see the results when it gets major, Stuxnet or watching them blow up a test missile on the ground when the initializing sequence goes awry between the G&C module and their computer: Boom, kills a bunch of experts. The Iranians have been probing and attacking as well, the most notable front page story was somehow hacking the signal and bringing down one of our drones but it's going an all the time. The US Army has fully dedicated teams working attack and defense on these very cheesedicks and have had some great success's.

Meantime, the electrical utility industry noticed how fragile our grid system is, and started the ball rolling to look at the systems weakness's closer, then - realizing what the Israeli's had in store for Iran and that Iran might do that very thing to us first: the government finally woke up, put 2 (the conflict with the Israel attack planned and the Iranian pledge to hit the US) and 2 (the 2 nucs on the Iranian boats off shore) and 2 (how our energy grids strength of inter connectivity could also be a weakness) together and all but crapped their pants. The ditherer in Chief has put it hard to the Israeli's that if they attack they MUST tell us in advance, the US is tracking Iranian ship movements 24/7 and has dedicated resources directed and ready to sink any threats ASAP (hopefully). We still will likely take some hits in small bases overseas which is the other reason the US officials and the President have been reluctant to see an attack proceed. The lessons of 1914 are not that far back for us. However, for the Israeli's, the horrific lessons of the 1940's are even closer, and much worse. We do see things differently.

Now they are looking at hardening it up the grid. They've been putting it to the utility's to get their st**f together and work on this issue for some time. Which is a damned good thing. Better late than never. Of course, being a NW Firearms preparedness and survival maven, some of you are all way ahead of the curve. However, if trucks are not running, and there is no refrigeration: we are all going to be in a world of hurt the likes of which we've never seen or dream of in our nightmares. I know that it's popular to rag on our President, but if you look at his energy policy alone, he has done right by this country and his picks to run the energy dept are top notch men. (Chu and Munez) Anyone want to debate Obamas energy legacy vs Bush's track record: be glad to have that discourse. This President is doing a fantastic job of watching out for the country in this arena. No, I didn't vote for him.



Some links for bedtime reading, this one says that Iran already have 3 nuclear warheads, you can do your own google search:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/27/iran-already-has-nuclear-weapons/?page=all

Iranians to send ships to the East Coast of the US:http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/iran-send-navy-us-coast-reports/story?id=14623277 and http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/UnNews:Iran_plans_to_send_another_ship_off_U.S._coast

Iran hack back stories: 1st) Low level US Navy computers hacked by Iran:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304526204579101602356751772

Iranians hit 30,000 computers of the Saudi Aramco oil company
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/shashankjoshi/100239562/iran-the-mossad-and-the-power-of-cyber-warfare/

Etc etc, you can find that stuff out there. For myself, when I put it all together I think this is going to get down and dirty soon. We (US/Israel) has the edge, but keep some gasoline cans filled up and handy along with the LED lights and candles cause this crap can spill out of control your way fast. Iran has been openly hostile with Israel, and the Israeli's are understandably (in my view) fed up with the BS coming out of Iran. I suspect we are in for a duzy the likes of which are rarely seen in this world. The Israelis canceled their last attack as the ditherer in Chief forced it on them, not a bad thing if you are looking at having the lights on the entire US east coast permanently turned off. That time of restraint is past as negotiations are going nowhere. Hang on and batten down the hatches, I'd bet it's here before Christmas (Hanukkah), but 1 year or sooner is a very high probability. I'm wishing the Israeli's well on this one, cause if they miss being perfect with the knockout blow, the snake will be turning and biting us. It might anyway...for other reasons.

I only know a bit, but that little bit is enough to get me serious about what I'm doing in my personal life. (ie, mostly out of the stock market which is replaced by a ETF which leverages the US interest rate, whats left in stocks is heavily weighted in natural gas stocks that have good proven reserves, keeping gold, selling some rentals and buying an escape place, stocking up on supplies like garbage bags, buying Nato gas cans, etc etc. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. If they can find peace and settle down, you'll still have emergency stock on hand for an earthquake or whatever else may hit.

Regards to all, but especially the Israelis who should not have to be fighting for their very existence:

 

[Sodbuster]

Haven't read it yet ut here is the article.............http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/u...drill-will-simulate-a-knockout-blow.html?_r=0

Yup, that's one of the articles that is out there.

 

[erudne]

"In an effort to draw utilities and the government closer, the industry recently established the Electricity Sub-Sector Coordinating Council, made up of high-level executives, to meet with federal officials"

From 9-1-13
another 'interesting interview w/Janet Napalitano about a Grid-down situation
NASA Alert America Blackout & Grid Shutdown 2013 - YouTube

 

[erudne]

I found an interesting website about a show (American Blackout) that will be aired soon (Oct. 27th 9:00east on Nat Geo). I found it to be interesting and entertaining. Enjoy!

<broken link removed>

I found the we site to be slightly less annoying than Obama's UHC site

 

[44 Guy]

Just another reminder, in November, the Feds are going to run tests and sample blackouts on the grid to see how reaction would be. You just never know when it's going to happen. Just like a thief, they don't send out warnings.

Sodbuster

My question is WHY are they going to do this. Power goes off all of the time. Brown outs, wind and snow storms, hurricanes etc. They already know that the scum will come out of the woodwork and cause problems.

 

[Sstrand]

Not to worry . . . The marina in Seattle will be protected from said scum by the anti-gun guy with the shotgun.

Sheldon

 

[AMProducts]

Nice find Oregonty. Some more back story here. The rumor a few years or so back is that the Iranians had been able to procure 2 warheads from the old USSR break up. It appears that is is fairly probable. The US had spent a lot of scratch to help secure them in the various satellite country's, and would know if any were "missing". Reading the US reactions to Iranians in this scenario is one explanation of our reticence. I've only read the Iranians intimating that they had these but stories have come from a couple directions to make it believable, and @ 2-3 years back when Israel was publicizing their anger about the Iranian nuclear weapon build-out, the Iranians announced that they would be running 2 of their Navy ships up and down the Atlantic off the East Coast. They also hinted that they had Nucs. Now, everyone knows that the technical difficulties of any kind of accuracy would most likely be beyond their capability's. But truthfully, the Iranians have a of of clever folks over there, many even highly trained to be engineers in the US - so no one wants to underestimate this possibility. That possibility is that they might be able to fit one to a jury rigged missile and get it up via a ship launch high enough to cause an EMP airburst over the east coast. Even judging it to be a smaller tactical warhead of 220 kilotons, a successful air burst over NY or Washington DC would be beyond catastrophic. IT WOULD MAKE ELECTRICITY DISAPPEAR FOR A LONG LONG TIME. Flatten some buildings too, but everything folks are use to having would not work. Cars, refrigerators, TV's, computers, about everything.

While all this is going on, we've been reading about the back and forth back room computer conflict that the software engineer/hackers have been having. It's pretty close to an all out war with a lot of tit for tat. We occasionally see the results when it gets major, Stuxnet or watching them blow up a test missile on the ground when the initializing sequence goes awry between the G&C module and their computer: Boom, kills a bunch of experts. The Iranians have been probing and attacking as well, the most notable front page story was somehow hacking the signal and bringing down one of our drones but it's going an all the time. The US Army has fully dedicated teams working attack and defense on these very cheesedicks and have had some great success's.

Meantime, the electrical utility industry noticed how fragile our grid system is, and started the ball rolling to look at the systems weakness's closer, then - realizing what the Israeli's had in store for Iran and that Iran might do that very thing to us first: the government finally woke up, put 2 (the conflict with the Israel attack planned and the Iranian pledge to hit the US) and 2 (the 2 nucs on the Iranian boats off shore) and 2 (how our energy grids strength of inter connectivity could also be a weakness) together and all but crapped their pants. The ditherer in Chief has put it hard to the Israeli's that if they attack they MUST tell us in advance, the US is tracking Iranian ship movements 24/7 and has dedicated resources directed and ready to sink any threats ASAP (hopefully). We still will likely take some hits in small bases overseas which is the other reason the US officials and the President have been reluctant to see an attack proceed. The lessons of 1914 are not that far back for us. However, for the Israeli's, the horrific lessons of the 1940's are even closer, and much worse. We do see things differently.

Great analysis, however I think a few of your technical details are a little flawed:

EMP is HIGHLY localized if the blast happens in the atmosphere, as it's primary method of production is the radiation interacting with the atmosphere, if the blast happens inside the atmosphere the distances traveled by the radiation will be extremely limited, and thus the EMP effects will be a tertiary concern to that of blast, radiation and fallout. Yes, residual ionization will limit radio communication, but there will be minimal lasting effects to equipment outside the blast area.

On the other hand, if they had a bigger bomb (mT range) and a really big reliable rocket (which they don't), they could come close to generating the minor nuisance caused by the starfish prime test: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

Despite being a 1.4mT blast, happening at 250 miles AGL, the biggest issues were that it overloaded many of the instruments intended to measure the effects, this is likely because the instruments were too sensitive to measure the flux from the bomb. Just as with the CDV-700 (GM tube survey meter) if it's exposed to too much radiation, it saturates, and measures "nothing", however the CDV-715 (ion chamber survey meter) once it measures anything, (5 rem/hr) it's time to pack up your stuff and GTFO. However, this is mostly a matter of instrument design, not a situation similar to lithium-7 neutron runaway that happened with castle bravo.

From these, I consider the EMP threat from Iran to be essentially nil, they don't have weapons, they don't have delivery systems.

The threat I consider larger is that of the nascent space program of the chinese... they have demonstrated capability to delivery objects into space, and bring them back. From an EMP perspective, the bigger threat is to have an orbital payload reach the 200+ mile altitude mark with a succession of orbits, and then detonate itself over the eastern seaboard; detonating over the center of the country is a waste, as 60% of the energy is radiated into space, and at least 20% of the energy will be wasted EMPing farms, and the remaining effects on the coasts will be extremely limited, having a net zero effect on our retaliatory capabilities (which is pretty much assured).

That said, the chinese don't really need to engage in open warfare with us, they will simply be able to buy us at present rates of borrowing.

The cyber-warfare front is something quite different. Iran's attacks on the production infrastructure is something that may seem like a tit-for-tat response to stuxnet, however nothing is that simple. Iran is having a cash crisis, they are no longer able to afford grain and fuel subsidies for their population, which is something that destabilizes the government. Affecting oil production of a competitor means china and the far east will be forced to buy more oil from them and at a higher price.

The chinese on the other hand are invested heavily in computer espionage for two potential pay offs: first, the US despite what many may say is still the most innovative industrial country on the planet, however because of our corporate taxing structures, we tend to out source the production to other countries allowing gained capital to remain offshore and safe from taxation. The second follows from the first, while we maintain the innovative advantage, much of that extends to our production of high tech weapons, which by and large still happens domestically. Despite this, because of the first point, many of the components in these systems are made off shore in china, taiwan, and other places. Being able to affect the COTS parts streams, and being able to obtain specifics as to the interaction between the weapon and it's control circuitry allows the chinese to backdoor potential weapons systems essentially neutralizing the threat posed.

One fundamental theme that is repeated over and over again is that adversity breeds strength, and that those who know no adversity will become weak. Iran will become both smart and strong because they have to, to survive, same thing with China, they have been growing in strength both economically and technologically since the 1970's. While the US still retains an edge, without strong leadership and commitment to avoid this historical paradigm it will be only a matter of time before we enjoy the same second class status as the european powers.

 

[erudne]

watching now

 

[chainsaw]

Buy up all the generators you can,after the show you won`t find one anywhere.

 

[Sgt Nambu]

Pretty lame show! The prepared guy running out of his bunker and confronting the people looting his fuel was priceless! "now you stop that!" LOL!
Not that I would ever do such a thing, but, aimed rapid fire from cover seems appropriate!

 

[Cuthbert Allgood]

Just another reminder, in November, the Feds are going to run tests and sample blackouts on the grid to see how reaction would be. You just never know when it's going to happen. Just like a thief, they don't send out warnings.

Sodbuster

I kind of went through that while attending high school in Commiefornia during the late 90's. Those rolling blackouts during the Davis era weren't all that spectacular. We just went on with what we were doing like nothing was happening.

 

[U201491]

And I suppose the people that die or are victimized during those blackout tests are ok. Just colateral damage.
Instead of testing why dont they spend that money to harden everything against an EMP? THAT would be a logical first step.

 

[U201491]

Most peoples IQ level would go up without 2 hours of TV.

 

[GOG]

Well, I took the bait. I can't believe I wasted two hours of my life on that trash.

I also thought that making the only prepper in the show nasty and shrill showed the bias to be expected from NatGeo.