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I think it's hilarious when people that know little to nothing about geology try to predict the future. Especially when it comes to earthquakes which are some of the most unpredictable natural events we have. Sells newspapers though I guess.
 
I think it's hilarious when people that know little to nothing about geology try to predict the future. Especially when it comes to earthquakes which are some of the most unpredictable natural events we have. Sells newspapers though I guess.
Lots of natural disasters we cannot fully preduct to the date, but we can predict a time range by looking at a Geological record, and we prepare by identifying known danger zones. If you see evidence of massive earthwqakes in the past, at rough intervals, and we are past the midway point of that interval, its a reasonable assumption to consider the possibility of it happening soon. Western Wa is a known danger zone. The last time the "big one" hit, 1705ish if im thinking right, Bainbridge island shifted upwards about 30ft in less than a few minutes. If you look close in a few locations you can see the old shoreline. The West Seattle bridge is literally built on a fault line, hence all the recent panic/rebuilding thats going on with tunnels/I-90 downtown.

The Geologists who track these: https://www.pnsn.org/earthquakes/recent

FYI, ive spoken with the folks at UW who track these, and they say at most we will have a 30 second warning for the big one, assuming it originates in the pacific, just off the Wa coast. Essentially a series of amber "alerts" with a countdown will be sent out, with a timer based off of your cell phone towers location, and how many seconds it takes for the earthquake waves to reach your location. Pretty cool actually.
 
I think it's hilarious when people that know little to nothing about geology try to predict the future. Especially when it comes to earthquakes which are some of the most unpredictable natural events we have. Sells newspapers though I guess.
Seems pretty straightforward to be able to figure out which bridges will likely collapse and subsequently isolate particular areas if an earthquake hits a region.
 
Good stuff. Will most people be prepared? No. I would say I'm semi-prepared. If I could just get off the dime and finish that rain barrel project that I've had pending since 2003. I got lazy and bought cases of bottled water instead.

Which is a subject that concerns me. In the county under discussion, the highest population area is in the southwest corner. Most of which gets its water supply from a big lake up in the foothills. The water comes down to the population area by way of two large pipes. I've read in this same newspaper that the disaster preparedness gurus opine that it would take up to a year to get this water supply up and running again if it got wiped out in an earthquake.
 
@ilikegunspdx is it a guess/prediction? Definitely in some ways.

As others have said though, there may be insights on the state of some bridges or overpasses.

Moreover, here is something more tangible for those in WA State. Liquefaction susceptibility maps. I posted the website link below and a screenshot for an area North of Seattle. One should expect more damage in those zones.

As mentioned by @gmerkt those freshwater-delivery pipelines run right through a high-risk zone on their way Westbound to the Everett area.


https://www.dnr.wa.gov/programs-and...rp-site-class-and-liquefaction-susceptibility


Screenshot 2023-02-06 at 6.20.13 AM.png
 
One area of preparedness might be tent building. Because in a major quake, a lot of structures will be flattened or otherwise dangerous. In what can be a cold, rainy environment large measures of the year, a dry, warm place might be wanting. It's not like being homeless in California or Florida, where you can sleep comfortably under the stars for much of the year.
 
.......call me pig headed but I'm still waiting for the Ice Age we were promised back in the 60's and 70's....have to be honest.....it's been long enough I'm beginning to lose patience.
 
One area of preparedness might be tent building. Because in a major quake, a lot of structures will be flattened or otherwise dangerous. In what can be a cold, rainy environment large measures of the year, a dry, warm place might be wanting. It's not like being homeless in California or Florida, where you can sleep comfortably under the stars for much of the year.
Yup, I 100% agree. I think most timber built homes would be fine, but you never truely know. We bought a 12'x14' Wall tent and spent 3 weeks in it last summer. Im planning on building a low height deck in out back yard (keep it off the ground) that it can be built on in an emergency.

Super tall 6' sidewall, 9' something peak height, and we easily had a full Kingsize bed in there.

Also, your note on H20 prepardness. I think in Western WA/OR we could bank on rainfall alone if we needed. A few tarps could be rigged up to collect water, and I always keep a few small water filters as well. Plus there are lots of streams which is helpful.

20220813_161431.jpg 20220813_155400.jpg 20220813_155336.jpg
 
Im planning on building a low height deck in out back yard (keep it off the ground) that it can be built on in an emergency.
This is a good idea. Particularly in the NW. Plus, it's something you may use without waiting for a disaster that may never come.

Rental facilities in some National Parks used to consist of "tent cabins" built during the CCC era. Which are basically what you describe. A wooden platform supporting a basic framework that in turn supported the canvas cover. The back half was raised wooden floor, the front half was dirt floor and that's where the wood stove was situated. Those were in use for decades. Until they were replaced by cold, concrete slab and block wall abominations that accommodated two families, one on each side in close proximity.

We forget that wall tents were commonly used structures in the old west and Alaska in pioneer days.
 
Also, your note on H20 prepardness. I think in Western WA/OR we could bank on rainfall alone if we needed.
This I'm wondering about, what with our long dry spells the past few summers.

We live near a year-round creek. But we also live in country with terrain considerations so it would be real work to carry water. Of course without working toilets, no dishwasher, no laundry equipment, no shower, your needs for water are greatly reduced.

Another thing is, with thousands of thirsty people around, that year-round creek might suddenly become inadequate.

I've got lots of metal-roofed structures, I just need to get off my duff and convert them all to water collection. It would be easy and quickly done in an emergency. But that's when suddenly you've already got a lot of other things to do.
 

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