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Oh boy, another "poor math skills" thread.

For argument's sake we'll presume Republican=conservative=No on 114 and Democrat=Liberal=Yes on 114. I realize this isn't always true but percentage-wise it works out pretty close.

Per Oregon SoS website; 75.6% Republican voter turnout vs. 72.1% Democrat turnout statewide. So right there the Republicans did better at showing up.
One has to presume that any effort to get more voters to show up will get more voters from BOTH sides to show up. Ferinstance lets presume 100% voter turnout in Multnomah county. That's roughly 74,000 MORE votes for 114 and 17,000 more votes against it. I'm glad those folks stayed home!! Do that math in the conservative counties and see how many it takes to get past that 57,000 vote disadvantage. In Clackamas county you would be roughly another 12,000 behind. Lane county wouldn't be too bad, you'd only fall behind another 1000 or so there. Washington county would bite you pretty hard, another 20,000 in the hole.
Yes it would be nice if only the folks we agreed with came out to vote but that isn't the case. Bemoaning the fact that lots of people can't be bothered doesn't really address the issue. Personally, for people who don't care enough to learn about the candidates and issues, I'd rather they stayed home. A lot of them are why 114 passed.

SoS website, refer to page 3;

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf
 
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This is why Lane County numbers were so low. :s0054: I had my whole family's ballots returned, saying that they were challenged due to signatures not matching what they had on file. I know of at least 10 other people with the same result. unsurprisingly, these were all 'no' votes for 114. I have heard of many others that this happened to also. Who knows how many of these "challenges" there were. They sent a form for us to fill out, and return, but the measure was passed before we even got the forms.

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Yeah, so there is no way to know whether or not your vote on an issue actually got counted toward that issue. That seems like a problem to me. There has to be a way to tag votes as counted for or against an issue in the final numbers and offer that information securely only to the person who voted. I believe our ballots are run through an optical scanner. What happens if the scanner doesn’t count a vote because the bubble wasn’t filled in completely enough, or there happened to be a line accidentally drawn through it? Do we get notified that our vote on that issue didn’t count? Does our ballot get fully rejected and we get a letter of notification?

I don’t know that I want to go down this rabbit hole, though…but I am curious
 
Or if they “actually” counted it…
They only say they received it..
They never say if it was counted or shredded.
I voted in the Phillipines and in Hungary and it was in person voting unlike this clown show we have here with mail in ballots that may or may not count.

I dropped off my US 2020 ballot in downtown Salem ballot box.
They said they never got it. 🙄
Checked and checked and I literally dropped it off at the ballot box INSIDE the Marion County elections office and they couldn't find it after weeks of waiting.

All a scam..all of it...and like Stalin said..it's not who votes but WHO COUNTS the votes.

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The question is even if you voted in person how would you be 100% sure they counted your vote?
Back in the day, you would place your ballot in a locked ballot box in the presence of poll workers. When the polls closed, the box would be unlocked and the ballots counted under the supervision of poll workers from both parties and the watchful eye of volunteer poll watchers from the local community. There was a verifiable chain of custody right through the counting process.
What happens if the scanner doesn’t count a vote because the bubble wasn’t filled in completely enough, or there happened to be a line accidentally drawn through it? Do we get notified that our vote on that issue didn’t count? Does our ballot get fully rejected and we get a letter of notification?
No you don't. That's why you need to be sure to properly fill out your ballot according to the instructions. If a ballot gets rejected there is no way to connect it to a voter, so you are out of luck. So do it right the first time.

For argument's sake we'll presume Republican=conservative=No on 114 and Democrat=Liberal=Yes on 114. I realize this isn't always true but percentage-wise it works out pretty close.

Per Oregon SoS website; 75.6% Republican voter turnout vs. 72.1% Democrat turnout statewide. So right there the Republicans did better at showing up.
The wild card in your scenario is the non-affiliated voters. They are the largest single group of registered voters, and are not accounted for in the party turnout stats.

On another note, I would venture to guess that many of the no-shows are people registered under the motor voter law. There are hundreds of thousands of them and they probably have little interest in voting or they would have registered on their own. The nanny state can lead a horse to water but... You know the rest.
 
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Aw c'mon man! You mean that they didn't count all of my votes FOR?
[just kidding, really!]
 
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The wild card in your scenario is the non-affiliated voters. They are the largest single group of registered voters, and are not accounted for in the party turnout stats.

On another note, I would venture to guess that many of the no-shows are people registered under the motor voter law. There are hundreds of thousands of them and they probably have little interest in voting or they would have registered on their own. The nanny state can lead a horse to water but... You know the rest.
The non--affiliated voters are accounted for in their own column on the SoS page, and proportionately about half as many of them showed up as those registered as either R or D. No reason to believe their voting inclinations would differ dramatically from the registered voters.

As far as motor-voters not participating, good. Stay the F out of it if you can't be bothered to make an effort to educate yourself and participate.
 
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Or ballots got tossed..
This might be the best possible way for an election to be gamed in Oregon. It's possible someone might have an opportunity to steal completed ballots and destroy or hide them resulting in them not being counted. I believe that the ballot return envelopes don't have the voter's name on them unless the voter provides a return address or their signture is legible--but otherwise there is only a bar code to differentiate between voters--so it'd hard to tell if the ballots are a Democrat's or a Republican's without a voter registration role to check against and having access to the bar codes and a bar code reader. I can't really see this working on a large scale, but this could maybe work for a smaller election with a really close margin if one could reliably target a geographic area where the votes came from?
Or padded, as the case may be…
If Oregonians want change, the only way that happens is to do away with mail-in balloting and require voter id.

I have to prove who I am when I take the kid to the pediatrician, yet who knows for sure whom it is that cast the ballots…
I'll bite since you put this out there and it appears that more than a few people hold your opinion. I want to understand why some Oregonians believe this about our election system, and I realize you can't speak for all of them, but I assume you know more than a few and have discussed this.

I understand our election system works like this and correct me if I'm missing something. Qualified voters are automatically registered at the DMV when getting a license or state ID, but if not they register to vote by completing a form stating they live at a specific address. To register they need some state ID number or a SSN and they sign a form threatening five years in prison and a $125K fine for faking it. Unless they move around a lot the registered voter's address is supposed to be the same address as on their driver's license or other approved ID used to register. The ballot is mailed to the registered voter's address and the envelope it's mailed in and the ballot return envelope both have a specific bar code assigned to it for each voter, but the ballot itself doesn't because a voter's choice is confidential. The registered voter's signature is on file at the county elections board in the county their registered in. After the voter completes the ballot they seal the envelope and sign the back of it over a written warning about criminal liability for faking it, etc. The voter can mail it or put it in a designated secure dropbox. When the ballots arrive at the elections office they are scanned in and marked as received. The election workers then check the signatures on the envelope assigned to the voter against the registered voter's signature on file, and if the signatures don't match the ballot is disqualified. Where is the lack of security in that process other than at the home where the registered voter received their ballot? Yes some really could be completed by children or parents, etc., new tenants, but I just can't see how votes could be successfully forged well enough to get past the signature comparison in large enough numbers to swing an election. I really am curious.
 
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This might be the best possible way for an election to be gamed in Oregon. It's possible someone might have an opportunity to steal completed ballots and destroy or hide them resulting in them not being counted. I believe that the ballot return envelopes don't have the voter's name on them unless the voter provides a return address or their signture is legible--but otherwise there is only a bar code to differentiate between voters--so it'd hard to tell if the ballots are a Democrat's or a Republican's without a voter registration role to check against and having access to the bar codes and a bar code reader. I can't really see this working on a large scale, but this could maybe work for a smaller election with a really close margin if one could reliably target a geographic area where the votes came from?


I'll bite since you put this out there and it appears that more than a few people hold your opinion. I want to understand why some Oregonians believe this about our election system, and I realize you can't speak for all of them, but I assume you know more than a few and have discussed this.

I understand our election system works like this and correct me if I'm missing something. Qualified voters are automatically registered at the DMV when getting a license or state ID, but if not they register to vote by completing a form stating they live at a specific address. To register they need some state ID number or a SSN and they sign a form threatening five years in prison and a $125K fine for faking it. Unless they move around a lot the registered voter's address is supposed to be the same address as on their driver's license or other approved ID used to register. The ballot is mailed to the registered voter's address and the envelope it's mailed in and the ballot return envelope both have a specific bar code assigned to it for each voter, but the ballot itself doesn't because a voter's choice is confidential. The registered voter's signature is on file at the county elections board in the county their registered in. After the voter completes the ballot they seal the envelope and sign the back of it over a written warning about criminal liability for faking it, etc. The voter can mail it or put it in a designated secure dropbox. When the ballots arrive at the elections office they are scanned in and marked as received. The election workers then check the signatures on the envelope assigned to the voter against the registered voter's signature on file, and if the signatures don't match the ballot is disqualified. Where is the lack of security in that process other than at the home where the registered voter received their ballot? Yes some really could be completed by children or parents, etc., new tenants, but I just can't see how votes could be successfully forged well enough to get past the signature comparison in large enough numbers to swing an election. I really am curious.
The signature comparison is a joke. Many people's signatures change constantly depending on their level of fatigue, stimulant or depressant intake, stress, and a variety of other reasons. The fact that the overwhelming majority of people rarely need to write anything by hand anymore adds an even greater level of inconsistency to the mix because quality and consistency of handwriting degrades when not used for an extended period of time. And how old is that signature sample? My signature has evolved quite a bit over the last 2 decades.

If those signatures are then being compared manually by an election worker, who I doubt has any experience in handwriting analysis or forgery detection, and that person is expected to make a judgment call on whether that signature is legit or not... well, what could possibly go wrong? Talk about a gigantic opportunity for malfeasance, incompetence, or simple error.
 
True. However a non-vote is almost the equivalent to a "yes" vote for such a bad measure. And while hundreds of thousands (notwithstanding the dead or those who have moved out of state) of voters that failed to do their civic duties, they could have made the difference.
On something like this, even if I didn't vote for the candidates, I would have cast a NO vote on M114.
 
Other than the Oregon “My Vote”, which only tells you if your ballot was received, is there a way to tell if your vote actually got applied toward a measure/candidate?

Say they didn’t think you filled out the bubble adequately on one item and didn’t count it…how could you find that out?
I received a ballot received and a ballot was applied email from Multnomah County.
 
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Oh boy, another "poor math skills" thread.

For argument's sake we'll presume Republican=conservative=No on 114 and Democrat=Liberal=Yes on 114. I realize this isn't always true but percentage-wise it works out pretty close.

Per Oregon SoS website; 75.6% Republican voter turnout vs. 72.1% Democrat turnout statewide. So right there the Republicans did better at showing up.
One has to presume that any effort to get more voters to show up will get more voters from BOTH sides to show up. Ferinstance lets presume 100% voter turnout in Multnomah county. That's roughly 74,000 MORE votes for 114 and 17,000 more votes against it. I'm glad those folks stayed home!! Do that math in the conservative counties and see how many it takes to get past that 57,000 vote disadvantage. In Clackamas county you would be roughly another 12,000 behind. Lane county wouldn't be too bad, you'd only fall behind another 1000 or so there. Washington county would bite you pretty hard, another 20,000 in the hole.
Yes it would be nice if only the folks we agreed with came out to vote but that isn't the case. Bemoaning the fact that lots of people can't be bothered doesn't really address the issue. Personally, for people who don't care enough to learn about the candidates and issues, I'd rather they stayed home. A lot of them are why 114 passed.

SoS website, refer to page 3;

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf
How do you stay home with mail in ballots?
 
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36 REASONS WHY MEASURE 114 PASSED BY 24,972 VOTES.

Voter turnout, county by county as of 6PM on 12/7/2022 are shown below. Some of the results are pathetic. Predictably, the highest support for the measure was in the cesspool of Multnomah County, with 75% to 25% in favor. The measure led in Washington County 62% to 38% and Clackamas County at 52% to 48%. The measure led in Lane County at 54% to 46% and in Deschutes County at 51% to 50%. All liberal strongholds.

9. Deschutes County
BALLOTS COUNTED 110,422 ACTIVE REGISTERED VOTERS 155,275 TURNOUT 71.1%
44,853 DIDN'T VOTE
I agree with the general sentiment; however you said
"and in Deschutes County at 51% to 50%." Not quite correct. it was 50.42 on 114 vs 49.58, winning by fewer than 1,000 votes. Still a sad fact, but Deschutes is not quite a liberal stronghold. Christine Drazan won vs Kotek in the county.
 
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The question is even if you voted in person how would you be 100% sure they counted your vote?
In the old day a lot of 'citizens' were involved in tabulating and counting votes. I remember whole school auditoriums were filled with volunteers helping. My grandmother, a DAR member took great pride in participating. Fraud and maleficence was much harder in that environment as there were too many people to corrupt. If we went back to such a system, I'd have faith in the results.
 
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In the old day a lot of 'citizens' were involved in tabulating and counting votes. I remember whole school auditoriums were filled with volunteers helping. My grandmother, a DAR member took great pride in participating. Fraud and maleficence was much harder in that environment as there were too many people to corrupt. If we went back to such a system, I'd have faith in the results.
Do you know if that doesn’t happen now?
 
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BUT, But, but......
What about those "FUDDS"?


Yup......remember this?

-- by Martin Niemoller (with my additions for firearms)

First they came for the Socialists Hi-cap magazines, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist had no Hi-cap magazines.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists Semi-automatic firearms, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist had no Semi-automatic firearms.

Then they came for the Jews shotguns, rifles and revolvers, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew did not own a shotgun, rifle or revolver.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me real weapons left to put up a fight with.


Aloha, Mark
 

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