Thread: Eight Common TEOTWAWKI Misconceptions

"Misconception Number One: You are going to bug out by car, truck or recreational vehicle (RV).

Wrong, it takes only one careless driver to shut down the road. On a normal day an overturned truck closes the road for half a day. With no wrecker service, the road will be closed forever. With everyone attempting to flee for the hills the roads will be gridlock. There are no secret roads, if you know about them so do others."

Daily Survival: Eight Common TEOTWAWKI Misconceptions

No secret roads? Well they aren't secret but most people don't care to use them. A few years ago when the Portland area was hit with a surprise snow and the subsequent ice, the town stopped. It took people 4 hours to drive 4 miles. I was in Estacada heading for Tualatin and came upon a huge traffic jam on hwy. 224 (Gladstone) of people trying to get on 205. I turned on the radio and found out what was happening. I turned around, went to Carver and over the bridge and up to Redland Rd. Redland to O.C, across the 43 bridge to Willamette Falls Rd. to Borland Rd and then home. Took me only 15 minutes longer than it would have normally. The only traffic I saw were a few other people who knew how to get around the interstate. The next few days I hear horror stories of people being stuck on I-5 / I-205 for 4-6 hours!!!!

I do agree with a lot of the misconceptions he's listed though. Being a backpacker, I fully understand and agree that with the misconception of B/O with a pack full of guns and ammo. So many people are out of shape people (or just plain fat) don't realize how heavy a 50 pound ruck is after humping it a few miles. These people really should consider a push cart. I use my kids red wagon quite a lot while camping to haul gear around (going fishing or to play on the beach) and you can pack a lot of gear in one and save the back. Heck, didn't everyone have a grocery cart full of stuff in the movie, The Road? (hahaha)

I hope this guy convinces everyone he is right. Maybe he will clear the roads if he convinces people they can't make it.

jj

This also assumes that everyone will be attempting an exit at the same time. With the paranoia level in this group I would expect most to be gone a week to 2 weeks ahead of time

So Mark what kind of Paranoia guage do you have? Is this the one that sits next to the radiation alert & the barometer? Just Kidding. In some vocabularies paranoia and preparedness are interchangable...
A1

I agree with about 90% of that...but I think it's funny how he states that you won't know when TEOTWAWKI but makes such declarations as "you're not fit" and all roads will be gridlocked immediately. I agree buying a huge RV and thinking you can scale across the state is foolhardy; however, I think anyone with a 4x4 will be able to get where they need to go without too much hassle within the first 72hrs (at least until they run out of gas).

Well to get into the idea that anyone with a 4X4 will be able to get some where. I guess that depends on where you start out.

Portland and the surrounding area has a HUGE problem. It's called the Willamette River.

You can cross the river at

Oregon city (currently only the 205 bridge)
Boone Bridge on I5 (everyone and their brother will be stacked up here)
Canby ferry (very limited operations requires it be manned and powered)
Hwy 219 Bridge south of Newberg (Huge bottle Neck in the Dundee area)
Wheatland Ferry North of Salem (limited operations and requires it be manned and powered)
And the two bridges in Salem

You might be able to use one of the railroad bridges but I wouldn't count on it.

a 4x4 won't help fording the river and depending on where your starting from and where your heading just getting past the Willamette if the major crossings are fubared can add huge distance and time to your exit.

Originally Posted by Martini_Up

So many people are out of shape people (or just plain fat) don't realize how heavy a 50 pound ruck is after humping it a few miles. These people really should consider a push cart

I remember bumping into one of my neighbors on the way into Bagby Hot Springs when I was a kid. He was humping his entire family's kit for a couple 'a days stay. In a wheel-barrow. Thought that was clever enough that the image has stuck with me for 40 years.

Anyone else remember the original bathhouse, from before the jerks burned it down? Back in the day, the place was sooo under-used we could fill a tub and just leave it sit for a couple hours to cool, rather than tote cold water.

I remember seeing the Forest Service guys running "motorized wheel-barrows" -- a rig that looked like a stretcher with handles at each end at waist-height for two guys to hold, and one wheel, centered underneath hooked to a lawn-mower engine. I suppose they'd do it now with a quad and a trailer, but back in the day I thought it looked like a pretty neat solution. Think that was above Timberline Lodge, hauling hopper-loads of gravel to dump along a trail.

Originally Posted by Mark W.

Portland and the surrounding area has a HUGE problem. It's called the Willamette River.

Wife and I started thinking about GHBs and routes. I reminded her that she'll have to cross the Tualatin to get home. Her first thought was, "Well, I can come up Boones Ferry rather than 99W."

" Uhh, you'll still have to cross the river, somewhere."

"Hmmm..."

" There is another option..."

"What?"

" Might mean abandoning your car, but there is the pedestrian bridge at Cook park."

I couldn't find it just now, but I know I saw a map on Tigard's map site that showed *all* the bridges in the city. Thought at the time that that would be handy for planning routes ahead of the event or probing routes post.

MrB+

Seems to me, caches along your intended route are the way to go since you might have to walk at least some of the way

Depending on the nature of the event that necessitates a bug out, leaving any metropolitan area is going to be a nightmare. I see traffic reports on Portland stations during normal rush hours when the daily drivers are just trying to get home before Dancing with the Stars comes on. Imagine those roads filled with panic-stricken drivers. Imagine Seattle! Even if one makes it out of the city it will take many miles before the traffic diffuses. Put yourself in the seat of a car filled with folks who had no plan, who have no supplies, and who have no defined destination in mind. If it were me I'd latch onto the bumper of the rig loaded with stuff, and follow that. Deciding what to do with unwanted tails might well be the first unplanned for and most difficult decision you will make.

I don't need silly roads.. pffft.

Originally Posted by VW_Factor

I don't need silly roads.. pffft.

Good luck to ya.....You'll miss the mess. I just need a few miles of one.....and can go cross country if need be.

Getting out of Portland - and over the Williamette - is one part of the puzzle. But, like Duce alluded to, selecting a destination is something else entirely (barring if you have a TEOTWAWKI BOL contingency in play).

If there's a massive Cascadia zone earthquake that levels the region, there might not be any bridges left in Portland for traffic to clog anyway.

For me, I'm an Okie transplant. All my family is two thousand miles away, so my basic and nebulous plan at this point is to head sound through the farmlands between the river and the Coast Range (avoiding the traffic jam of Dundee at all costs).

Depending on the nature of the S hitting the F, the bridge in Albany or Monmoth might still be up and/or getting south to there might be all I need to do.

No one has mentioned that with the aging population that many are on medication to stay alive and healthy. What is going to happen when you run out of your pills and medications? I can say that most of our love ones will probably die, have we thought of that? I think this Japan fiasco is a great wakeup to TEOTHWAWKI thinking. It is more likely an act of nature rather than the roar of tanks rolling in from Canada and Mexico that will catch us unaware. Oh well, the billboards I have seen around are saying the Judgment Day is coming this May 21st.

Originally Posted by ikona

No one has mentioned that with the aging population that many are on medication to stay alive and healthy. What is going to happen when you run out of your pills and medications? I can say that most of our love ones will probably die, have we thought of that? I think this Japan fiasco is a great wakeup to TEOTHWAWKI thinking. It is more likely an act of nature rather than the roar of tanks rolling in from Canada and Mexico that will catch us unaware. Oh well, the billboards I have seen around are saying the Judgment Day is coming this May 21st.

It CAN'T come on May 21st. I'm going on vacation on the 24th!!!!!!

I thought this was interesting to say the least

"The biggest reason, they are brainwashed, to wait
for rescue and will stay in town. They are
conditioned that it is somebody else's respons-
ibility to take care of them. You are not going to
see welfare bums at your BOL. If they move at all,
they will head for another urban area rumored to
be better, particularly, if they are being trucked
there by the National Guard or government."


He seems to think that all criminals are either stupid or lazy with no survival instincts. Try telling that to any cop or corrections officer.

Peoples biggest problem is things will no longer be "normal" and they won't know what to do. They will fall right back to their normal path as quickly as possible. They won't be able to address change and would rather die than do so, they will.

jj

Originally Posted by VW_Factor

I don't need silly roads.. pffft.

+1 That why I'm saving up for one of these.

YouTube - extreme offroad from Russia

Originally Posted by Mark W.

Well to get into the idea that anyone with a 4X4 will be able to get some where. I guess that depends on where you start out.

Portland and the surrounding area has a HUGE problem. It's called the Willamette River.

You can cross the river at

Oregon city (currently only the 205 bridge)
Boone Bridge on I5 (everyone and their brother will be stacked up here)
Canby ferry (very limited operations requires it be manned and powered)
Hwy 219 Bridge south of Newberg (Huge bottle Neck in the Dundee area)
Wheatland Ferry North of Salem (limited operations and requires it be manned and powered)
And the two bridges in Salem

You might be able to use one of the railroad bridges but I wouldn't count on it.

a 4x4 won't help fording the river and depending on where your starting from and where your heading just getting past the Willamette if the major crossings are fubared can add huge distance and time to your exit.

I'm in WA btw and I don't plan on running to Oregon, but you do bring up a great point.

I've come to the following conclusions durring a SHTF scenario...

1) If you live in a major metro area, you're pretty much boned as far as bugging out. Any roads you do decide to traverse are probably going to be gridlocked like the aforementioned article states. 90% of people taking to the roads in a panic (going to the store, going home, going to the hills, picking up family members, etc) is going to be pure chaos. But all the roads all over the world? Doubtfull, just stay off major interstates/highways and avoid bottlenecks (i.e. bridges, cities, etc.).

2) If you do not have enough gas in storage to get to your destination (and back) you will end up walking. They say that you will probably take 2-3 times longer getting anywhere during SHTF...well, at least it SHOULD take you longer. Unless you're driving a dirt bike up unpassible roads by trucks you'd better be driving cautiously (avoiding bottle necks/choke points) and looking for possible danger areas. You may have to backtrack and go down several side-streets of 3rd alternative routes because of unforseen circumstances (Marial Law, Natural Dissasters, etc.). That takes time and fuel.

3) You can plan, plan and plan some more....but there will ALWAYS be something you didn't plan for happen that throws you fr a loop. Your vehicle breaks down, someone is your immediate family (or you) is criticlly injured or killed, an EMP tok out you vehicle, raiders setting up checkpoints within the first 72hrs instead of the forseen weeks later*, etc.


*Note: this brings me kinda back (full circle) to the article at hand. People that arm themselves with tons of guns, friends and ammo that have no "real plan" for food and other supplies will (in effect) become the very raiders that they plan to defend against. I truly believe in my heart that people that come into the prep forum that bash me for storring rice but say "maybe I should get more ammo, just in case" will be the first to victimize a "true prepper" in the event of SHTF. You may not think they have a plan down, but they do...make no mistake about it. I'm very leary of who I'm even going to take up to our final destination area...guys I went to school with and have known for years are still suspect in my eyes- keeping OPSEC about your plans is critical.

My 2.5 cents on this...

my bov does not require gas,diesel or roads.runs on grass and even cellulose and can be eaten in worse case